TSG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Thông tin Tín hiệu Đường sắt Sài Gòn

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

11.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

19.889

Current

11.500

Gap

+73.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

30.77%

Kd(1-t)

6.12%

D/(D+E)

69.23%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.05%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

13.226

50%DCF Value

26.552

Blended Intrinsic

19.889

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TSG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

-1.70

Elevated

DSRI

1.818

GMI

1.143

AQI

0.516

SGI

1.405

DEPI

0.519

SGAI

0.957

TATA

-0.007

LVGI

1.408

The Beneish M-Score of -1.7002 indicates that TSG is below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the high DSRI and SGI values raise concerns about potential revenue growth that may not be supported by actual cash flows.

Red Flags

DSRI of 1.8177 indicates significant increases in receivables relative to sales, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
SGI of 1.4054 indicates that sales growth is outpacing the industry average, which may not be sustainable.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 71.8/100 reflects strong accrual and cash conversion metrics, indicating that earnings are likely to be of good quality.
Ownership concentration with Tổng Công ty Đường sắt Việt Nam holding 75.8% suggests stability and potential for strategic alignment in management decisions.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by a state-owned enterprise (SOE) may lead to governance risks, particularly in terms of transparency and accountability. However, it also provides a level of stability in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor TSG's revenue growth closely, particularly the receivables and sales metrics, to ensure that growth is supported by actual cash flows. Consider a cautious approach until clearer trends in cash flow and revenue recognition emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.42

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.36

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+2.4%

Volatility

143.5%

Max Drawdown

-55.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

8.33P/E

P/B0.83

P/S0.20

ROE15.8%

ROA5.4%

EPS2164.28

BVPS13793.90

Gross Margin15.4%

Net Margin3.8%

D/E1.14

Current Ratio1.55

Rev Growth-27.3%

Profit Growth0.0%

EV/EBITDA4.51

Div Yield9.6%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.1M

Charter Capital

30.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Đường sắt

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TSG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đường sắt Việt Nam

Inst

75.8%

2.3 trieu

Uông Nhật Phương

Indiv

2.7%

82.397

Phạm Văn Dũng

Indiv

1.2%

36.500

Lê Đức Dũng

Indiv

0.6%

19.700

Nguyễn Ngọc Hòa

Indiv

0.6%

18.300

Dương Ngọc Thắng

Indiv

0.5%

14.400

Đàm Ngọc Mẫn

Indiv

0.4%

13.700

Phạm Công Thành

Indiv

0.4%

12.200

Trần Thị Ánh Hoa

Indiv

0.2%

6.600

Đậu Trường Thành

Indiv

0.2%

5.100

Đỗ Đức Toan

Indiv

0.2%

5.000

Lê Đức Ánh

Indiv

0.1%

4.400

Thân Trọng Thảo Vy

Indiv

0.1%

3.800

Board & Management

Uông Nhật Phương2.7%

Phó Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Văn Dũng1.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Lê Đức Dũng0.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Ngọc Thắng0.5%

Phó Giám đốc

Đàm Ngọc Mẫn0.4%

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Thị Ánh Hoa0.2%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Đức Toan0.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Lý Bá

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

TRV87.3%CT375.8%RAT75.8%CT675.8%TVG75.8%DPG5.8%HUT5.0%VPG4.7%MCG4.3%HNF4.2%HPP4.2%HWS2.9%

Computed 12/04/2026