VHM

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Vinhomes

Bất động sảnCT

103.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

55.263

Current

103.000

Gap

-46.4%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

39.12%

Kd(1-t)

6.54%

D/(D+E)

60.88%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.32%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

67.760

60%DCF Value

46.931

Blended Intrinsic

55.263

Value Decomposition

32%

68%

Explicit period (32%)Terminal value (68%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VHM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.18

Moderate

DSRI

0.849

GMI

1.093

AQI

0.716

SGI

1.506

DEPI

1.153

SGAI

0.609

TATA

0.002

LVGI

1.125

VHM exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.1811, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it falls below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.5060 and low revenue quality score of 21.4/100 raise concerns about growth sustainability and revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.5060 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
Low eq_revenue score of 21.4/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition, which could affect earnings quality.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 82.3/100 reflects strong overall earnings quality, particularly in accruals (99.3/100) and receivables (100.0/100).
Beneish M-Score of -2.1811 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investors.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tập đoàn Vingroup holding 73.5%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. However, the presence of institutional investors like the Government of Singapore and Viking Asia Holdings adds a layer of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor VHM closely for signs of revenue quality deterioration and consider diversifying exposure due to ownership concentration risks. A deeper analysis of growth strategies and revenue recognition practices is recommended before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.57

Distress Zone

Sharpe

1.95

Excellent

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+219.8%

Volatility

63.3%

Max Drawdown

-38.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.89P/E

P/B1.90

P/S2.91

ROE18.7%

ROA6.1%

EPS10008.04

BVPS57506.72

Gross Margin29.5%

Net Margin26.7%

D/E2.17

Current Ratio1.45

Rev Growth50.6%

Profit Growth29.3%

EV/EBITDA13.58

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

4107.4M

Charter Capital

41074.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VHM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Vingroup

Inst

73.5%

3.0 ty

Government Of Singapore

State

5.0%

217.4 trieu

Viking Asia Holdings II Pte.Ltd

Inst

4.6%

153.9 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Kinh Doanh Và Thương Mại P&s

Inst

2.7%

89.8 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

1.2%

51.0 trieu

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

Inst

1.0%

32.9 trieu

Board & Management

Trần Kiên Cường

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Thị Thu Hằng

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Lê Thị Giang

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Phùng Thị Bích Hồng

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Ashish Jaiprakash Shastry

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Quang

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Douglas Farrell

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Lê Vân Quỳnh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Duyên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Văn Khương

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Xây dựng

Nguyễn Diệu Linh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thiếu Hoa

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mueen Uddeen

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Varun Kapur

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Cao Thị Hà An

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Nhật Vượng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Tiến Công

Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Ngọc Lan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Mai Thu Thủy

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thu Hằng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Vũ Hưng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hoang D. Quan

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

VPL85.5%VEF83.3%VNB73.5%ASM11.2%HDG10.0%MIG9.9%DSE9.7%YEG8.9%TCT8.7%ACC7.4%BIC7.3%VMD7.1%

Computed 12/04/2026