Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 14.221
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.6268th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 73.2%99th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows several accounting signals of greater-than-peer aggressiveness (Beneish M-Score -0.1448, 93rd Vietnam percentile) with a meaningful year-over-year increase in the M-Score (+2.86). Key red flags are a very high abnormal accruals indicator (AQI 8.2790), very large receivables/out-of-trade-cycle items (73.2% of total assets, 99th Vietnam percentile) and an Altman Z-Score in the distress zone (0.70). At the same time, accruals-quality looks strong (Accruals quality 94.1/100 and TATA 0.0147), receivables quality measure in the earnings-quality composite is 100/100, and there are no accumulated losses or statutory loss tests met.
- Beneish M-Score -0.1448 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The M-Score aggregates multiple manipulation-related ratios; here it places the company in the top decile of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnam peers and has moved up by +2.86 year-over-year.
- AQI (Abnormal Accruals Index) 8.2790. This component is very large and drives the M-Score upward, indicating unusual accrual patterns relative to the model's expectation.
- Receivables and non-trade receivable-like items 73.2% of total assets (99th Vietnam percentile). The Vietnamese 'receivables outside the trade cycle' check shows a very large share of assets tied up in prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables rather than inventory or trade receivables.
- Cash-conversion weakness: three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.62 (68th percentile). Within the earnings-quality composite cash conversion scored 19.9/100, signalling profits are not converting strongly into operating cash flow.
- DEPI (Depreciation index) 1.2129 (>1). A DEPI above 1 indicates depreciation policies or useful lives that produce lower reported depreciation this year versus the prior year (lengthening lives or reducing depreciation), which can inflate reported margins.
- Margin-quality 0.0/100 in the earnings-quality score. The margin-quality subscore is at the bottom of the scale, flagging deterioration or inconsistency in margins versus peers or history.
- Altman Z-Score 0.70 (distress zone). This numeric score indicates low bankruptcy distance under the Altman multi-factor framework.
- Accruals quality 94.1/100 and TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) 0.0147. These figures show low total accruals relative to assets and high-quality accrual reporting by that metric.
- Receivables quality 100.0/100 in the earnings-quality composite. Despite the large quantum of receivable-like items (73.2% of assets), the receivables-quality subscore rates the composition/timing aspects highly by the scoring method used.
- DSRI 0.2432 (Days' Sales Receivable Index well below 1). A DSRI materially below 1 typically indicates receivables are shrinking relative to sales rather than being inflated.
- SGI 0.6505 (<1) and SGAI 0.5366 (<1). Sales growth index below 1 indicates sales are contracting versus prior year, and SGAI below 1 indicates relatively lower selling/admin expense growth, which can reduce pressure to capitalize expenses.
Ownership is concentrated: institutional Vimedimex 2 holds 45.3% and state-related Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam holds 10.2%; three named individuals together hold ~20.2% (Lê Xuân Tùng 7.4%, Trần Kiên Cường 7.1%, Lê Đình Dương 5.7%). This structure implies a dominant institutional block plus meaningful insider individual stakes.
- Compare the line(s) or note showing 'other long-term receivables', 'loans and advances to related parties' and 'prepayments' in the FY2025 balance sheet and schedule these items as a percentage of total assets to confirm the 73.2% figure.
- Reconcile operating cash flows in the cash-flow statement with profit in the income statement and the accruals note to verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit trend (reported 1.62) and the low cash-conversion subscore.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note (useful lives, changes in estimate) for disclosures that explain DEPI 1.2129 and any changes in depreciation rates or capitalisation policy.
- Check the auditor's report and the statutory-loss disclosure section for the specific Decree 155/2020 (as amended) tests and confirm that none of the statutory loss triggers were met in the published FY2025 audited statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.52
- P/S
- 0.24
- ROE
- 11.9%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- EPS
- 2.744
- BVPS
- 24.255
- Gross Margin
- 10.1%
- Net Margin
- 5.2%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.65
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 15.4M
- Charter Capital
- 154B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Y tế
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Dược phẩm
- Company Type
- CT