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Consumer sector

VMD

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Y Dược phẩm Vimedimex
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
15.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
144.867
Current
15.700
Gap
+500.0%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
22.85%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.93%
x
D/(D+E)
77.15%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF111.67B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
111.67B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
144.867
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VMD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

57
Fair
Accrual Quality
68
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
98

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.01
Low Risk
DSRI
1.387
GMI
0.855
AQI
1.331
SGI
0.353
DEPI
1.020
SGAI
1.286
TATA
-0.079
LVGI
0.845

VMD exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.012, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and margin, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags
  • The DSRI of 1.3872 suggests potential issues with inventory management, indicating that the company may be overestimating its inventory levels.
  • The earnings quality score of 56.8/100 is concerning, particularly the eq_receivables and eq_margin scores of 0.0/100, indicating a lack of effective receivables management and profitability.
Positive Signals
  • The eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion capabilities, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
  • The GMI of 0.8546 suggests that gross margins are stable, which can be a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top shareholder holding 45.3%, raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest, which could affect minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VMD's inventory management and receivables processes. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach, considering the ownership concentration while leveraging the positive cash conversion capabilities.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.49
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.39
Negative
Composite
64
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-3.8%
Volatility
39.3%
Max Drawdown
-29.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
10.98P/E
P/B0.76
P/S0.20
ROE6.8%
ROA1.5%
EPS1502.16
BVPS21717.71
Gross Margin9.5%
Net Margin1.9%
D/E1.87
Current Ratio1.28
Rev Growth-64.7%
Profit Growth-17.9%
EV/EBITDA-1.84
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
15.4M
Charter Capital
154.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VMD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Dược Phẩm Vimedimex 2
Inst
45.3%
7.0 trieu
Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam
Inst
10.2%
1.6 trieu
Lê Xuân Tùng
Indiv
7.4%
1.1 trieu
Trần Kiên Cường
Indiv
7.1%
1.1 trieu
Lê Đình Dương
Indiv
5.7%
879.896
Trần Thị Đoan Trang
Indiv
5.2%
807.290
Trần Văn Kỳ
Indiv
3.2%
272.730
Nguyễn Ngọc Dũng
Indiv
2.5%
378.980
Hóa Văn Quang
Indiv
2.4%
200.000
Đào Thị Bình
Indiv
2.1%
320.064
nguyen-thi-loan
Indiv
0.5%
85.556
nguyen-tien-hung
Indiv
0.3%
42.061
Bạch Quốc Chính
Indiv
0.2%
33.057
Board & Management
Lê Xuân Tùng7.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
NGUYỄN NGỌC DUNG2.5%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Loan0.5%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Tiến Hùng0.3%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Mai Anh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Kiều Huy Hoàng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Mai Phương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Đình Huynh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tô Thúy Anh
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Vũ Cẩm Vân
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trần Quang Huy
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Tạ Quang Trường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đặng Thu Trang
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Tiến Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Ngọc Duyên
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Cao Thị Thu Hằng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Thị Tuyết Minh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Ngọc Quân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Duy Phúc
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Bá Tuấn
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Mỹ Linh
Tổng Giám đốc
Sơn Minh Nguyễn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
ĐỖ THỊ ĐÔNG
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đoàn Đức Giang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bế Công Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Lan
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Tạ Thị Thùy Trang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Luy Xít
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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