Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.060
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.185
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1725th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.3%75th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows accounting signals that are mixed: a Beneish M-Score of -0.7269 (89th percentile among Vietnamese peers) and a year-over-year change of -4.04 indicate the company’s accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the trajectory has moved materially year-on-year. At the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 7.40 (well inside the ‘safe’ zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9; earnings-quality metrics are poor overall (30.8/100) with particularly low cash conversion and margin/revenue quality but a perfect receivables-quality subscore (100/100).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.7269 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to historical accounting patterns; value is above the US −1.78 threshold and in the 89th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, meaning this company’s pattern of the eight Beneish component ratios is more ‘aggressive’ than 89% of local peers).
- M-Score year-over-year change = -4.04 (measures change in the M-Score versus prior year; a large change indicates a material shift in the accounting profile compared with the prior year).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.5870 (measures deterioration in gross margin; >1 suggests gross margins declined and could create pressure to manage earnings).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.2238 (measures increase in the proportion of non-current or ‘‘other’’ assets; >1 can signal capitalizing or reclassifying costs into assets rather than expensing).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 4.8855 (measures changes in the reported rate of depreciation; large >1 suggests slower reported depreciation relative to prior year, which can inflate profit).
- LVGI (Leverage Growth Index) = 10.0000 (measures growth in leverage; a large number indicates material increase in leverage on the balance sheet).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1635 (16.35% of assets in accruals, measuring the extent of accrual-based earnings; elevated accruals reduce cash-basis support for reported profit).
- Earnings-Quality composite = 30.8/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these measure cash support for profits, stability of margins and persistence/quality of revenue; zero scores indicate serious weakness on these fronts).
- Cash-conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = 0.17 (17%, 25th percentile among Vietnamese peers; low, meaning reported profit has not been converting into operating cash).
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental changes; a low score indicates weak recent operating/financial improvements).
- Receivables-quality subscore = 100.0/100 (measures how much revenue/receivables look collectible and free of unusual items; indicates receivables-related metrics tested here look strong).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.0761 (measures change in receivables relative to sales; a value well below 1 typically indicates receivables are not growing faster than sales—consistent with the strong receivables-quality score).
- Altman Z-Score = 7.40 (measures distance from bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items; 7.40 sits in the ‘safe’ zone, indicating low bankruptcy risk by that model).
- No accumulated losses and no statutory loss-test triggers (the company’s retained earnings are positive and the audited statements do not meet the statutory tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
Ownership is concentrated: VID (Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Thương mại Viễn Đông) holds 33.3% (disclosed 2026-06-30), which under VAS indicates significant influence (≥20%). The remainder is owned by a mix of institutions and individuals (largest others: Giấy Toàn Lực 7.4%, Lê Thị Minh Giang 5.4%, an ‘america limited liability company’ 5.0%, Bùi Quang Minh 4.5%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (registrations, when present, are declarations of intent recorded with the exchange rather than executed trades).
- Compare FY2025 notes: reconcile 'Receivables and other receivables' lines with the related-party and long-term receivables schedule to verify composition of the 7.3% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Inspect the cash-flow statement and the auditor’s notes for operating cash flow and the reconciling items to profit (note the 3-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.17) to see which accruals or non-cash items are causing the low cash conversion.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note and the schedule of accumulated depreciation to understand the drivers of DEPI = 4.8855 (i.e., changes in estimated useful lives, additions, disposals or revaluations).
- Examine related-party disclosures and the loans/advances to/from related parties note to assess whether any of the AQI = 1.2238 (asset-quality increase) or elevated accruals (TATA = 0.1635) are connected to intra-group balances or prepayments.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.67
- P/S
- 10.99
- ROE
- 11.4%
- ROA
- 11.0%
- EPS
- 1.551
- BVPS
- 13.641
- Gross Margin
- 38.3%
- Net Margin
- 187.3%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.45
- Rev Growth
- +425.6%
- Profit Growth
- −2.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 60.92
- Div Yield
- 16.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 17.3M
- Charter Capital
- 173B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bán lẻ
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ tiêu dùng chuyên ngành
- Company Type
- CT