BXH

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần VICEM Bao bì Hải Phòng

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

11.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

32.225

Current

11.200

Gap

+187.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

55.97%

Kd(1-t)

5.88%

D/(D+E)

44.03%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

17.881

50%DCF Value

46.568

Blended Intrinsic

32.225

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BXH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.78

Low Risk

DSRI

0.575

GMI

1.151

AQI

0.567

SGI

1.557

DEPI

0.835

SGAI

0.805

TATA

-0.071

LVGI

0.984

BXH exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.7842, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 70.3/100, driven by strong cash conversion and receivables metrics, provides a counterbalance to these risks.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.7842 indicates potential manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.5567 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 70.3/100 indicates relatively strong earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion at 100.0/100.
Low DSRI of 0.5748 suggests that inventory levels are well managed compared to sales.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam holding 49.0%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BXH's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and consider diversifying their holdings due to the concentrated ownership structure.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.30

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.35

Negative

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.9%

Volatility

65.0%

Max Drawdown

-44.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

36.98P/E

P/B0.61

P/S0.13

ROE1.7%

ROA0.9%

EPS302.89

BVPS18263.60

Gross Margin8.8%

Net Margin0.3%

D/E0.76

Current Ratio2.25

Rev Growth55.7%

Profit Growth60.0%

EV/EBITDA6.01

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.0M

Charter Capital

30.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BXH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

49.0%

1.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Cơ Điện Idc

Inst

18.0%

543.400

Lưu Hải Hoa

Indiv

4.9%

147.000

Nguyễn Văn Thưởng

Indiv

2.7%

81.200

Nguyễn Văn Hạnh

Indiv

2.5%

74.400

Vũ Ngọc Quyết

Indiv

0.8%

24.500

Công Đoàn Công ty Cổ Phần Vicem Bao Bì Hải Phòng

Inst

0.6%

17.500

Hồng Anh Việt

Indiv

0.3%

9.050

Dư Văn Hải

Indiv

0.2%

6.712

Dư Quang Hưng

Indiv

0.2%

6.000

Phạm Văn Hùng

Indiv

0.2%

5.100

Trần Vinh Quang

Indiv

0.2%

5.000

Hoàng Kim Yến

Indiv

0.1%

4.300

Nguyễn Thị Thu

Indiv

0.1%

3.950

Phạm Quốc Hoàng

Indiv

0.1%

3.900

Nguyễn Anh Nghĩa

Indiv

0.1%

3.900

Mai Hồng Hải

Indiv

0.1%

3.701

Hà Thúy Mai

Indiv

0.1%

3.400

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Hạnh2.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Hồng Anh Việt0.3%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Văn Hùng0.2%

Trưởng phòng Tổ chức

Nguyễn Anh Nghĩa0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Mai Hồng Hải0.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Thúy Mai0.1%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó phòng Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng

Đào Thị Thu Hòa

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Kim Chi

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Kim Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Thị Thanh Hữu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

HT179.7%BTS79.5%BCC73.1%HOM71.1%DXV65.8%VTV62.9%TMX59.6%HCT53.9%TXM51.2%HTV50.1%BPC49.0%BBS49.0%

Computed 12/04/2026