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Construction sector

VSM

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Container Miền Trung
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
14.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
32.289
Current
14.800
Gap
+118.2%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
70.69%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.20%
x
D/(D+E)
29.31%
=
WACC
10.44%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.84%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
32.553
50%DCF Value
32.024
Blended Intrinsic
32.289
Value Decomposition
37%
63%
Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VSM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
80
Cash Conversion
38
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.99
Moderate
DSRI
1.339
GMI
1.007
AQI
0.754
SGI
1.014
DEPI
0.866
SGAI
1.015
TATA
0.050
LVGI
0.875

VSM exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.9922, which is below the manipulation threshold. While the earnings quality score is relatively strong at 64.4, the low cash conversion rate of 37.7 raises significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.9922 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality cash conversion score of 37.7/100 suggests poor cash generation relative to reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • High receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.
  • Strong margin score of 100.0/100 suggests robust profitability relative to revenue.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công ty Cổ phần Container Việt Nam, holds a significant 65.0% stake, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and operational metrics, before considering any investment in VSM due to elevated risks of earnings manipulation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.66
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.30
Positive
Composite
72
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+23.0%
Volatility
42.0%
Max Drawdown
-18.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.96P/E
P/B0.77
P/S0.25
ROE13.7%
ROA9.7%
EPS2483.98
BVPS19225.66
Gross Margin10.6%
Net Margin4.2%
D/E0.34
Current Ratio2.80
Rev Growth1.4%
Profit Growth2.0%
EV/EBITDA1.36
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VSM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Container Việt Nam
Inst
65.0%
2.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Sao Á D.C
Inst
4.4%
133.300
Ngô Quốc Vũ
Indiv
1.3%
64.080
Hoàng Thị Hà
Indiv
0.9%
26.200
Đặng Trần Gia Thoại
Indiv
0.8%
41.580
Nguyễn Văn Thưởng
Indiv
0.8%
25.520
Bùi Ngọc Xuân
Indiv
0.6%
19.200
Trần Xuân Bạo
Indiv
0.3%
9.000
Hồ Khả Quốc
Indiv
0.2%
11.880
Nguyễn Trinh Thục
Indiv
0.2%
9.900
Trần Thị Phước
Indiv
0.2%
9.900
Lê Thế Trung
Indiv
0.1%
6.600
Board & Management
Ngô Quốc Vũ1.3%
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Trần Gia Thoại0.8%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Thương0.8%
Phó Giám đốc
Trần Thị Phước0.2%
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Lê Thế Trung0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Trương Lý Thế Anh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thanh Tâm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Văn Đông
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Việt Trung
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hoàng Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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