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Construction sector

VNA

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải biển Vinaship
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
16.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
19.320
Current
16.100
Gap
+20.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
71.36%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.39%
x
D/(D+E)
28.64%
=
WACC
10.54%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
22.909
50%DCF Value
15.731
Blended Intrinsic
19.320
Value Decomposition
37%
63%
Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

43
Weak
Accrual Quality
92
Cash Conversion
43
Receivables
9
Margin Stability
50
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.37
High Risk
DSRI
2.526
GMI
0.678
AQI
0.489
SGI
0.983
DEPI
1.992
SGAI
0.994
TATA
0.021
LVGI
1.343

VNA exhibits several red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly highlighted by a high DSRI of 2.5265 and a low GMI of 0.6776. While the Beneish M-Score of -1.3673 suggests a lower likelihood of manipulation, the overall earnings quality score of 43.1/100 indicates significant concerns.

Red Flags
  • High DSRI of 2.5265 suggests aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • Low GMI of 0.6776 indicates declining gross margins, which could signal financial distress.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 43.1/100, particularly low eq_receivables at 9.2/100, raises concerns about revenue sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong institutional ownership with Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holding 51.0%, indicating potential stability and oversight.
  • High eq_accrual score of 91.7/100 suggests that reported earnings are backed by actual cash flows.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with 90% held by three institutional investors, may limit shareholder influence and transparency, posing a risk for minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VNA’s financial disclosures, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and cash flow sustainability before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.84
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.45
Negative
Composite
35
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-23.7%
Volatility
68.2%
Max Drawdown
-33.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.54P/E
P/B0.92
P/S0.89
ROE7.4%
ROA4.9%
EPS1273.08
BVPS17351.07
Gross Margin4.5%
Net Margin7.1%
D/E0.63
Current Ratio2.37
Rev Growth-1.7%
Profit Growth-34.1%
EV/EBITDA19.15
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
34.0M
Charter Capital
340.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Vận tải Thủy
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam
Inst
51.0%
17.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Container Việt Nam
Inst
39.0%
13.3 trieu
Công ty TNHH Chứng khoán Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Ngoại thương Việt Nam
Inst
6.5%
1.3 trieu
nguyen-quang-dung
Indiv
5.2%
1.0 trieu
Đoàn Văn Minh
Indiv
0.7%
135.100
Cao Minh Tuấn
Indiv
0.6%
121.900
Đoàn Bá Thước
Indiv
0.5%
109.500
Vương Ngọc Sơn
Indiv
0.4%
77.390
Lã Đức Trọng
Indiv
0.2%
38.100
Đỗ Văn Hội
Indiv
0.2%
32.500
Board & Management
Dương Ngọc Tú
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Xuân Ngoạt
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vương Ngọc Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thị Thanh Hương
Kế toán trưởng
Phan Thị Nha Trang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Duy
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Thị Thúy Hằng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Hải Long
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Thái
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lã Thị Liên Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Văn Toàn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Danh Tuyên
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Thị Ngọc Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Văn Nghi
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Dũng Chiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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