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Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải thủy - Vinacomin

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
9.500
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.656

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→36.16B
Fair EV/EBITDA→5.6x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.656
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA36.2 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4521755946289807626524726272930
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·62732214110.723140.6
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·15150.80000000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·40014341302733334137361314220
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·337550.1972180.050.10.30.20.020.3
Net Inventories
·119912134474189899128
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·119912134474189899128
Other current assets
·20510.90.92626520.90.922
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000010.7
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·62030921121571542832415562381411
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0571901900.020.020.020.020.020.020.0200
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.0200
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·5602324121422032394654376411
Tangible fixed assets
·5602324121422032394654376411
Intagible fixed assets
·00000000000.030.060.10
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0100000000000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000555555
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·0000000−5−5−5−5−5−5
Other non-current assets
·1617182361270.0428950.04
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1617182361270.0428950.02
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,07148427126129696165384888090411442
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·77225945349976254878102102124446456
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·27111245349976254878102971128569
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·247920017667391283533591114
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·300.0922665008083
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5011470000000512361387
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·5011470000000512361387
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·2992252262261981991056−14−22−35−36−15
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·2992252262261981991056−14−22−35−36−15
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·175100100100100100100100100100100100100
Other Reserves
·0.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·112112109846144444422
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1112164136951−98−119−126−139−140−119
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,07148427126129696165384888090411442
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000023800000000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·057190190000000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·175100100100100100100100100100100100100
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
53
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
17
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.43 · 81st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.20
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
3.242
GMI
0.500
AQI
0.351
SGI
0.862
DEPI
1.066
SGAI
1.615
TATA
−0.032
LVGI
1.346

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.4817th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
31.4%96th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows a moderately elevated Beneish M-Score of -1.4259 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating more aggressive accounting metrics than most local peers; the M-Score moved slightly toward manipulation risk year-over-year (change -0.20). Key earnings-quality weaknesses are concentrated in receivables and revenue measures (Receivables quality 0/100; Revenue quality 0/100) while accruals and cash-conversion metrics score strongly (both 100/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.68 (in the distress zone), and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.4259 (81st percentile vs VN peers): the overall score is above most Vietnamese peers; the peer percentile and the year-over-year change (-0.20) are relevant because the US -1.78 cutoff is not fully transferrable to Vietnam.
  • DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) = 3.2420: measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales and may signal revenue recognition or collectability concerns.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 31.4% of total assets (96th percentile): a very large share of assets classified as prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables compared with Vietnamese peers.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100: these scores indicate weak evidence that reported revenues and receivables reflect cash-generating core operations.
  • SGAI (Selling, General & Administrative Index) = 1.6147: SG&A growing faster than sales, which can pressure margins or reflect cost recognition timing.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.68 (distress zone): this score measures distance to bankruptcy-like distress using balance-sheet and income statement ratios; 1.68 is in the range typically associated with elevated financial distress risk.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100: accrual measures (TATA = -0.0316) indicate accruals are not the primary source of earnings volatility and overall accrual quality looks strong.
  • Cash conversion score = 100.0/100 but note the three-year operating cash flow / net profit measure (Vietnam check) is -0.48 (17th percentile): while the earnings-quality metric flags good short-term cash-accrual alignment, the three-year cash-conversion metric suggests profits have not consistently turned into cash over a longer horizon.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.3506 and LVGI (Leverage index) = 1.3462: AQI below 1 typically indicates no big shift to capitalizing or reclassifying expenses into assets, while LVGI >1 shows some increase in leverage but not an extreme change.
  • No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive: the statements show retained earnings are not negative and parent equity is positive.
Ownership Risk

Control is highly concentrated: Công ty TNHH Vận Tải Việt Thuận holds 82.6% of shares, with the next largest individual holders at 4.1%, 3.8% and smaller stakes. Director-deal disclosures (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30) show registrations for 2 sales (1,120,409 shares) and 2 purchases (410,000 shares), net registered volume -4.06% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑end breakdown of ‘Receivables and other long‑term receivables’ in the notes to the balance sheet with the revenue note to identify related-party, prepayment or loan components that make up the 31.4% of total assets.
  • Reconcile the DSRI components: confirm the change in trade receivables and sales in the revenue recognition note and the ageing schedule to test whether receivables growth aligns with billings or represents unusual terms.
  • Review the SG&A note and segment or expense schedules to see what drove SGAI = 1.6147 (is the increase from one-off items, recurring expense growth, or reclassification?).
  • Check the cash-flow statement and any reconciliation of profit to cash from operations over the past three years to verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit of -0.48 and explain the mismatch between high short-term cash/accrual scores and the multi-year cash conversion weakness.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.68
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.19
Negative
Composite
46
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden1.06×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover1.28×Leverage3.58=ROE3.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−11.2%
Volatility
48.9%
Max Drawdown
−18.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.59P/E
P/B
0.56
P/S
0.12
ROE
4.3%
ROA
1.5%
EPS
651
BVPS
17.108
Gross Margin
6.6%
Net Margin
0.8%
D/E
2.50
Current Ratio
1.67
Rev Growth
−9.1%
Profit Growth
−22.4%
EV/EBITDA
14.78
Div Yield
6.2%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
17.5M
Charter Capital
175B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Vận tải Thủy
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

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