ILC
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Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.189
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.4117th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.1%37th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting indicators show mixed signals. The Beneish M-Score is -1.6554 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.39, suggesting relatively more aggressive accounting than most local peers and a recent shift; concurrently, the Earnings-Quality composite is very low at 13.1/100 driven by cash-conversion, receivables and margin weaknesses, while the Altman Z-Score of 2.94 sits in the ‘grey zone’ and the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6554 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The -1.78 US cutoff is not directly decisive in Vietnam; the 76th percentile and the YoY increase of +0.39 indicate the company scores more toward aggressive accounting relative to peers and has drifted upward this year.
- DSRI = 1.3099 (days-sales-receivable index). A DSRI >1 implies receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) are growing faster than sales, consistent with collection or revenue-recognition pressure.
- TATA = 0.1577 (total accruals to total assets). Positive TATA of 0.1577 shows accruals are a material source of profit, which aligns with the low cash-conversion figure.
- Earnings-Quality = 13.1/100 with component scores: accruals quality 44.6/100, cash conversion 0.0/100, receivables quality 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100. These component zeros indicate very poor convertibility of reported profits into cash, weak receivables quality and margin sustainability.
- Three-year cash conversion (OCF / net profit) = -0.41 (17th percentile). Negative and low percentile means reported profits are not being converted into operating cash flow relative to Vietnamese peers.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. This indicates relatively weak fundamental accounting and performance metrics across profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency.
- LVGI = 1.1984 (leverage growth index). LVGI >1 signals leverage has increased, which may amplify accounting risk if profits are accrual-based.
- AQI = 0.5569 (asset quality index less than 1). A lower AQI can indicate no recent large write-offs of long-lived assets relative to prior period asset base.
- SGI = 1.1100 (sales growth index ~11% growth). Some top-line growth exists, which can provide operating scale if sustainable.
- DEPI = 0.1289 (depreciation index well below 1). A DEPI much less than 1 suggests depreciation expense has not fallen sharply relative to prior period, i.e., there is no immediate sign of aggressive slowing of depreciation.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minorities) is positive and the parent has reported 0 years of net loss up to FY2025—these are balance-sheet stability signals relative to firms with recurring statutory losses.
Ownership is concentrated: one individual, Trịnh Thị Nga, holds 25.0%, and a related institutional owner (Tran Maritime Holdings) holds 11.8%; four individuals together hold the bulk of free float. Director-deal registrations (not executed trades) show 0 sale registrations and 2 purchase registrations totaling 650,000 shares (net registered volume +10.69% of shares outstanding), indicating insiders have registered to buy during the 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 window.
- Compare FY2025 accounts receivable and the receivables aging note with sales to validate the DSRI (1.3099) and the receivables-quality score; inspect whether significant receivables are long-dated or outside the normal trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to confirm the three-year cash-conversion ratio (-0.41) and identify the main non-cash accrual drivers (movement in payables, inventory, provisions, related-party receivables).
- Examine the related-party disclosures, prepayments and loans schedules to verify the 1.1% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and to see counterparty names, terms and repayment history.
- Review the notes on depreciation, fixed-assets additions and disposals to assess the DEPI (0.1289) explanation and the composition of asset-base changes that underpin the AQI (0.5569).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.55
- P/S
- 0.21
- ROE
- 6.7%
- ROA
- 4.1%
- EPS
- 662
- BVPS
- 10.142
- Gross Margin
- 9.0%
- Net Margin
- 2.6%
- D/E
- 0.11
- Current Ratio
- 2.36
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.1M
- Charter Capital
- 60.8B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
- Sub-industry
- Đào tạo & Việc làm
- Company Type
- CT