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Real Estate sector

TAL

Real Estate
Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Bất Động Sản Taseco
Bất động sảnCT
44.950
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
12.153
Current
44.950
Gap
-73.0%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
42.64%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.16%
x
D/(D+E)
57.36%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
19.290
60%DCF Value
7.394
Blended Intrinsic
12.153
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TAL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

32
Weak
Accrual Quality
48
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
3
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.95
High Risk
DSRI
1.135
GMI
0.668
AQI
0.506
SGI
2.214
DEPI
0.870
SGAI
0.742
TATA
0.146
LVGI
1.049

TAL exhibits a concerning Beneish M-Score of -0.9493, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk, especially with a significant SGI of 2.2144 suggesting aggressive revenue growth. The earnings quality score of 32.4/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.9493 is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
  • SGI of 2.2144 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 32.4/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, indicates severe issues in converting earnings to cash.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, suggesting potential reliability in revenue collection.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a high concentration with Taseco holding 60.0%, which could lead to governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protections.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on TAL, focusing on cash flow sustainability and revenue recognition practices, while considering a cautious approach given the elevated risk indicators.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.35
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.31
Excellent
Composite
41
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+91.2%
Volatility
41.3%
Max Drawdown
-27.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
24.62P/E
P/B2.91
P/S4.34
ROE14.2%
ROA5.3%
EPS1825.45
BVPS15432.14
Gross Margin37.3%
Net Margin17.6%
D/E1.35
Current Ratio2.40
Rev Growth121.4%
Profit Growth-1.2%
EV/EBITDA18.41
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
360.0M
Charter Capital
3600.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TAL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Taseco
Inst
60.0%
216.0 trieu
Đoàn Thị Phương Thảo
Indiv
4.0%
14.4 trieu
Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited
Inst
3.0%
10.7 trieu
amersham industries limited
Inst
2.0%
7.3 trieu
Norges Bank
Inst
1.8%
6.5 trieu
Hanoi Investments Holdings Limited
Inst
1.6%
5.7 trieu
DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company
Inst
0.4%
1.5 trieu
Samsung Vietnam Securities Master Investment Trust
Inst
0.2%
607.800
Nguyễn Trần Tùng
Indiv
0.1%
458.914
Computed 12/04/2026
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