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Utilities sector

ASP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Dầu khí An Pha
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
4.890
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
9.428
Current
4.890
Gap
+92.8%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS500
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
500
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
9.428
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ASP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

61
Fair
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
22

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.65
Low Risk
DSRI
1.046
GMI
0.894
AQI
1.016
SGI
0.980
DEPI
1.219
SGAI
1.073
TATA
-0.038
LVGI
0.928

The Beneish M-Score of -2.645 indicates that ASP is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the low earnings quality score of 61.3 and particularly poor revenue quality (21.6/100) raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 61.3/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability.
  • Revenue quality score of 21.6/100 suggests significant concerns regarding the reliability of revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.645 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Saisan Joint Stock Company, holds a significant 48.2% stake, which may lead to potential governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor ASP's revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership on governance. A thorough review of cash flow statements and operational performance is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.28
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.11
Negative
Composite
65
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+10.5%
Volatility
22.7%
Max Drawdown
-24.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.38P/E
P/B0.55
P/S0.06
ROE6.9%
ROA1.5%
EPS583.19
BVPS8945.40
Gross Margin10.8%
Net Margin0.7%
D/E2.93
Current Ratio0.70
Rev Growth-0.5%
Profit Growth205.4%
EV/EBITDA8.53
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
37.3M
Charter Capital
373.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ASP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Saisan Joint Stock Company
Inst
48.2%
18.0 trieu
Trần Minh Loan
Indiv
5.9%
2.2 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam - Chi nhánh Hải Phòng
Indiv
5.5%
2.0 trieu
Đinh Ngọc Hải
Indiv
3.1%
1.2 trieu
Phạm Thu Hiền
Indiv
3.0%
1.1 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam
Inst
3.0%
1.1 trieu
Quỹ Thành viên Việt Nhật
Indiv
2.9%
1.1 trieu
Trần Duy Luân
Indiv
2.7%
1.0 trieu
Trần Thị Thanh Hằng
Indiv
2.3%
862.650
Lê Xuân Hoàng
Indiv
1.6%
596.100
Nguyễn Hồng Hiệp
Indiv
1.3%
472.400
Ngô Tiến Dũng
Indiv
0.5%
177.383
Board & Management
Trần Minh Loan5.9%
Tổng Giám đốc
Hiroyuki Torizuka
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lại Văn Tú
Kế toán trưởng
Hirohisa Ikeno
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thanh Hòa
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Cao Văn Anh
Giám đốc Tài chính
Yasuyoshi Kasahara
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Takehiko Kawamoto
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Văn Thắng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Tomohiko Kawamoto
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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