ALV

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn MCST

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

7.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

21.104

Current

7.700

Gap

+174.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

61.08%

Kd(1-t)

6.35%

D/(D+E)

38.92%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.77%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

6.997

50%DCF Value

35.212

Blended Intrinsic

21.104

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ALV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.62

Elevated

DSRI

0.481

GMI

1.369

AQI

0.468

SGI

2.668

DEPI

0.828

SGAI

0.539

TATA

-0.061

LVGI

0.699

The Beneish M-Score of -1.6157 indicates that ALV is not likely to be engaged in earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 2.6676 and low earnings quality metrics, particularly in revenue recognition, raise concerns about potential aggressive growth strategies that may not be sustainable.

Red Flags

SGI of 2.6676 indicates aggressive revenue growth that may not be supported by actual cash flows.
Low eq_margin score of 22.4/100 suggests poor profitability relative to revenue, raising concerns about operational efficiency.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 67.3/100 indicates relatively strong cash conversion and receivables management.
Beneish M-Score of -1.6157 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among individual shareholders, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The top five shareholders hold nearly 33% of the company, which could influence decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor ALV's revenue growth and operational efficiency, given the elevated SGI and low margin scores. It may be prudent to wait for clearer signals of sustainable growth before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

3.81

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.69

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+63.7%

Volatility

56.6%

Max Drawdown

-39.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

3.07P/E

P/B0.39

P/S0.14

ROE13.5%

ROA9.0%

EPS2175.28

BVPS17246.70

Gross Margin9.5%

Net Margin4.5%

D/E0.37

Current Ratio3.04

Rev Growth166.8%

Profit Growth32.5%

EV/EBITDA0.85

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

9.6M

Charter Capital

96.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ALV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đỗ Thị Châu Anh

Indiv

9.9%

954.100

Bùi Văn Thể

Indiv

8.3%

800.000

Phương Tiến Dũng

Indiv

5.0%

282.308

Lâm Thu Huyền

Indiv

5.0%

280.000

Vũ Thị Thanh Thảo

Indiv

4.9%

275.700

Phạm Huy Hoàng

Indiv

4.8%

272.912

Trương Thế Sơn

Indiv

4.7%

263.340

Trương Thế Dũng

Indiv

4.6%

261.400

Phạm Thị Minh Ngọc

Indiv

4.6%

260.300

Nguyễn Thị Nga

Indiv

4.5%

141.500

Hồ Thị Thủy

Indiv

4.4%

250.000

Nguyễn Thùy Dương

Indiv

4.2%

126.800

Phan Hoàng Việt

Indiv

3.0%

91.400

Trần Đình Phúc

Indiv

1.7%

50.000

Nguyễn Thị Minh Ngọc

Indiv

1.5%

8.500

Hà Thị Hồng Nhung

Indiv

1.5%

85.000

Lê Văn Long

Indiv

0.4%

21.700

Trương Thế Tùng

Indiv

0.4%

20.000

Trương Khánh Toản

Indiv

0.3%

17.000

Trần Kim Luật

Indiv

0.3%

15.000

Nguyễn Hữu Dũng

Indiv

0.2%

11.440

Phạm Thị Bích Hường

Indiv

0.2%

11.000

Hồ Thị Trà Giang

Indiv

0.2%

5.288

Lê Văn Bình

Indiv

0.2%

5.000

Lê Thanh Tùng

Indiv

0.1%

8.000

Board & Management

Lâm Thu Huyền5.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Thị Hồng Nhung1.5%

Kế toán trưởng

Đặng Xuân Hòa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Lộc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Hoàng Yến

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Minh Trường

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Thị Xuyến

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

MKV13.0%TTA11.6%DS35.0%UNI5.0%SMT4.9%HUT4.8%DVG4.6%SSB4.5%CMC4.5%GGG4.5%TR14.5%THU2 links

Computed 12/04/2026