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DVG

Công ty Cổ phần Đại Việt Group DVG

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
800
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+30.2%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.042

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
50.4%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.0percentage points
Construction12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−11.7+5.7
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→5.53B
Fair EV/EBITDA→18.8x
Years of data→6
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→800
Calibrated value vs last close→+30.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.042
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA5.5 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 6
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·26221210570338346
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·140.92213
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000068
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1461424728225278
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·12316160.732180
Net Inventories
·1156454398156
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1156454398156
Other current assets
·0.1230.150.6
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·8510823523718150
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·2878773715439
Tangible fixed assets
·194948278330
Intagible fixed assets
·929299719
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·5730158200170
Investments in associate companies
·030158200170
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·5700000
Other non-current assets
·0.200.050.101011
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·000.050.100.30.4
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·347320340306519396
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·4732816153
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·4732816152
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00003428
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.020150.050.040.05
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.070000.30.5
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000.30.5
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·343313308299358343
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·343313308299358343
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·280280280280280280
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.30.30.20.20.20
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·212423192613
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·347320340306519396
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0530090
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·280280280280280280
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0.2000910
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·419505250

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
27
Poor
Accrual Quality
30
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M −0.38 · 91st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.14
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.858
GMI
2.192
AQI
1.758
SGI
1.196
DEPI
0.437
SGAI
0.657
TATA
0.214
LVGI
0.606

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−18.772nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
35.4%97th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
1
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows multiple accounting signals that are atypical versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.3772 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.14, driven by a high GMI (2.1924) and elevated AQI (1.7581). Operating cash conversion is very weak (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -18.77, 2nd percentile), while the Altman Z-Score is 7.54 (well inside the safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is low at 3/9, indicating mixed financial health and weak fundamentals.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -0.3772: measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company's score ranks in the 91st percentile vs Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting among VN peers) and rose by +0.14 year-over-year.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.1924: measures deterioration in gross margins; a value >1 suggests worsening margins relative to the prior year.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.7581 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.6061: AQI >1 indicates rising share of potentially hard-to-value assets (capitalized costs, intangibles, receivables outside trade cycle); LVGI <1 signals falling leverage but must be read with other indicators.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2136: measures accrual-based earnings; a positive large number indicates significant accruals relative to assets.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -18.77 (2nd percentile): measures ability to convert reported profit into cash; the very low negative figure indicates profits have not produced operating cash.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 35.4% of total assets (96th percentile): measures non-trade receivables, prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; this is unusually large versus peers and increases off-balance-sheet/related-party inspection needs.
  • Earnings-Quality sub-scores: overall 27.4/100 with accruals quality 29.7/100, cash conversion 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100 and revenue quality 0.0/100 — these indicate weak cash- and margin-related earnings quality despite perfect receivables quality in that specific metric.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: measures nine fundamental signals; a 3 indicates weak performance across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency checks.
  • Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): one sale registration and two purchase registrations recorded — these are exchange registrations of intent, not executed trades, and warrant noting in the context of other signals.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 7.54: measures distance to bankruptcy using financial ratios; the score is in the safe zone, indicating low bankruptcy risk under the Altman model.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100: within the Earnings Quality components this specific metric scores highly, suggesting reported revenues/receivables in core trade lines are of good quality (while other receivable-like items sit outside the trade cycle).
  • No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive: the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and equity is positive, which are supportive balance-sheet facts.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is relatively concentrated among individuals: the largest shareholder holds 10.1% (Trần Thị Trinh) and the next four holders hold 5.0%, 4.7%, 4.6% and 4.2%. There is no single majority controller apparent from these top-five stakes. Director-deal registrations include one sale and two purchase registrations (intent filings) during the last year.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line items behind 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) in the FY2025 notes and the schedule of receivables to confirm composition and counterparties.
  • Reconcile operating cash flows to reported net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to understand drivers of the three-year cash conversion ratio (-18.77) and identify any large non-cash accruals or timing differences.
  • Inspect the related-party disclosures and the loans/advances schedules to see whether large receivables or prepayments are to group companies, suppliers, or individuals.
  • Review the audit report and the notes on revenue recognition, margin components and any accounting policy changes (which would relate to GMI = 2.1924, SGAI = 0.6568 and revenue/margin quality scores at 0) for explanations of margin deterioration and revenue quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
7.54
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−1.55
Negative
Composite
39
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.03×Interest Burden1.04×Op. Margin−0.01×Turnover0.60×Leverage1.01=ROE−0.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−61.3%
Volatility
127.4%
Max Drawdown
−80.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.07
P/S
0.11
ROE
−0.8%
ROA
−0.8%
EPS
−91
BVPS
10.772
Gross Margin
1.4%
Net Margin
−1.2%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
59.25
Rev Growth
+19.6%
Profit Growth
−318.5%
EV/EBITDA
20.47
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
28.0M
Charter Capital
280B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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