ARM

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Hàng không

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhCT

46.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

24.291

Current

46.800

Gap

-48.1%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.50%

E/(D+E)

21.06%

Kd(1-t)

6.16%

D/(D+E)

78.94%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.47%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→4.77B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

4.77B

Growth Rate

6.47%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

24.291

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ARM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.78

Moderate

DSRI

1.989

GMI

0.816

AQI

0.542

SGI

0.892

DEPI

1.189

SGAI

1.240

TATA

0.044

LVGI

1.063

The Beneish M-Score of -1.7806 is just above the manipulation threshold, indicating potential earnings manipulation. Additionally, the Earnings Quality Score of 32.4/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.7806, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk.
Earnings Quality Score of 32.4/100, with cash conversion and receivables both at 0.0/100, suggesting poor earnings quality.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.9890 indicates that sales growth is not supported by accounts receivable, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
The SGI of 0.8917 suggests that sales growth is slowing, which could indicate a more cautious approach to future growth.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 41.3%, which can lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor ARM's financial disclosures and consider conducting further due diligence on cash flow sustainability before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.86

Grey Zone

Sharpe

1.97

Excellent

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+4.8%

Volatility

38.5%

Max Drawdown

-17.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

24.55P/E

P/B3.59

P/S0.50

ROE15.0%

ROA2.9%

EPS1906.42

BVPS13049.60

Gross Margin13.5%

Net Margin2.0%

D/E4.70

Current Ratio1.19

Rev Growth-10.8%

Profit Growth24.3%

EV/EBITDA15.01

Div Yield2.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.1M

Charter Capital

31.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh

Sub-industry

Nhà cung cấp thiết bị

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ARM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Hàng không Việt Nam

Inst

41.3%

1.3 trieu

Đào Khắc Hậu

Indiv

25.0%

777.778

Đào Anh Hùng

Indiv

11.4%

355.293

Lê Văn Kim

Indiv

7.0%

203.707

Hoàng Việt Dũng

Indiv

2.5%

79.266

Đoàn Minh Phú

Indiv

2.5%

64.683

Nguyễn Thị Kim Liên

Indiv

0.5%

13.545

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam - Chi nhánh Đông Đô

Indiv

0.3%

8.000

Vũ Thị Nguyệt Nga

Indiv

0.2%

6.000

Vũ Công Thành

Indiv

0.2%

5.559

Board & Management

Đào Khắc Hậu25.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Việt Dũng2.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Trung Dũng

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Duy Việt

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Khắc Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Hoàng Yến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Hồng Quang

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Tiến Dũng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đinh Phúc Lộc

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đinh Ngọc Chủng

Phó Giám đốc

Đỗ Thu Hằng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Đình Thái

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Dương Quang Trung

Kế toán trưởng

Hồ Xuân Hiếu

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Top connections

NCS60.2%NCT55.1%NAS51.0%CIA51.0%MAS41.3%HBS41.3%HCT24.7%ONW24.5%PHH15.9%GND10.5%ISG5.2%HAC4.8%

Computed 12/04/2026