NCT

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Hàng hóa Nội Bài

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

91.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

133.581

Current

91.000

Gap

+46.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

75.37%

Kd(1-t)

6.42%

D/(D+E)

24.63%

WACC

10.78%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

88.343

50%DCF Value

178.819

Blended Intrinsic

133.581

Value Decomposition

38%

62%

Explicit period (38%)Terminal value (62%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NCT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.37

Moderate

DSRI

1.111

GMI

0.967

AQI

0.734

SGI

1.316

DEPI

0.950

SGAI

0.924

TATA

-0.027

LVGI

1.086

NCT exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.3686, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the SGI of 1.3163 suggests aggressive revenue growth, which could be a concern in the context of Vietnam's economic environment and potential overstatement of revenues.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.3163 indicates aggressive revenue growth, which may not be sustainable.
Low eq_revenue score of 9.5/100 raises concerns about the quality of reported revenues.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 80.4/100 reflects strong overall earnings quality.
High eq_receivables and eq_margin scores of 100.0/100 indicate effective management of receivables and strong profit margins.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Hàng không Việt Nam, holds a significant 55.1% stake, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and governance issues. However, institutional ownership is relatively high, which can provide stability.

Recommendation

Monitor NCT's revenue growth closely, especially given the elevated SGI. Consider a cautious investment approach, focusing on the sustainability of earnings and potential impacts from ownership concentration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

9.58

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.68

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-11.2%

Volatility

16.6%

Max Drawdown

-18.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.51P/E

P/B3.55

P/S2.08

ROE61.1%

ROA45.3%

EPS14808.41

BVPS27142.72

Gross Margin46.5%

Net Margin32.0%

D/E0.37

Current Ratio3.09

Rev Growth31.6%

Profit Growth45.4%

EV/EBITDA5.25

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

26.2M

Charter Capital

261.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NCT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Hàng không Việt Nam

Inst

55.1%

14.4 trieu

america limited liability company

Inst

11.0%

2.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Hàng không Sân bay Việt Nam

Inst

7.0%

1.8 trieu

Stichting Depositary APG Emerging Markets Equity Markets Pool

Indiv

2.6%

674.620

Công ty TNHH Quốc tế Sao Đỏ

Inst

2.4%

633.440

PFA Asset Management

Indiv

1.2%

316.430

HKJC Equity Trust Fund

Inst

0.9%

224.290

Emerging Asia Select

Indiv

0.2%

43.450

Đặng Thanh Hải

Indiv

0.2%

42.988

Board & Management

Nguyễn Giang Tiến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đinh Trọng Sơn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đinh Văn Đình

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Hồ Quang Tuấn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Dương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Xuân Mạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Việt Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quốc Hưng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Xuân Phúc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Phương

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hà

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ /Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đinh Hồng Sơn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

NCS60.2%NAS55.1%CIA55.1%ARM55.1%MAS55.1%HBS55.1%SGN25.0%KHD2 links WCS23.6%DNM22.7%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%

Computed 12/04/2026