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Utilities sector

BHA

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Bắc Hà
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
23.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
20.088
Current
23.100
Gap
-13.0%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend6.73%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS900
Payout ratio40.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
900
Base Growth
6.73%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
20.088
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BHA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

50
Weak
Accrual Quality
84
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
15
Margin Stability
51
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

5.52
High Risk
DSRI
2.000
GMI
0.971
AQI
18.923
SGI
0.927
DEPI
1.081
SGAI
0.948
TATA
-0.040
LVGI
0.738

BHA exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 5.5186, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 49.9/100, particularly low receivables and revenue metrics, further raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 5.5186 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality score of 49.9/100, with a receivables metric of only 14.5/100, suggests poor cash collection and potential revenue recognition issues.
  • DSRI at 2.0000 indicates significant growth in receivables relative to sales, which may signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings, suggesting that cash generation is not entirely compromised.
  • SGI at 0.9272 indicates a decrease in sales growth, which may reflect a more conservative approach to revenue reporting.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly institutional, with Tổng Công ty LICOGI holding 41.0% and Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Bắc Hà holding 24.2%. This concentrated ownership could lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few large stakeholders over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in BHA, particularly focusing on cash flow sustainability and governance practices. Monitoring future earnings reports for signs of improvement in receivables and revenue recognition will be crucial.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.32
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.03
Positive
Composite
51
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+22.6%
Volatility
86.9%
Max Drawdown
-18.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.12P/E
P/B1.42
P/S4.51
ROE16.2%
ROA11.1%
EPS2530.58
BVPS16305.57
Gross Margin68.8%
Net Margin49.5%
D/E0.36
Current Ratio0.70
Rev Growth-7.3%
Profit Growth2.1%
EV/EBITDA5.82
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
66.0M
Charter Capital
660.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BHA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty LICOGI
Inst
41.0%
27.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Bắc Hà
Inst
24.2%
16.0 trieu
Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Bất Động Sản Mặt Trời Mới
Inst
0.7%
449.162
Hồ Thị Kim Ánh
Indiv
0.1%
1.3 trieu
Board & Management
Phạm Ngọc Tân
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Văn Thái
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Hà
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Đỗ Văn Chính
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tạ Hồng Diệu
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thành Hưng
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Cảnh Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Danh Quân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Anh Dũng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đồng Quốc Cường
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thanh Hải
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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