L14

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Licogi 14

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

24.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

31.368

Current

24.300

Gap

+29.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

68.37%

Kd(1-t)

6.19%

D/(D+E)

31.63%

WACC

10.30%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

40.531

50%DCF Value

22.205

Blended Intrinsic

31.368

Value Decomposition

36%

64%

Explicit period (36%)Terminal value (64%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L14

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.47

Low Risk

DSRI

0.769

GMI

0.306

AQI

1.056

SGI

1.011

DEPI

0.756

SGAI

2.236

TATA

-0.050

LVGI

0.887

L14 exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.4652, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 53.8 suggests potential concerns, particularly in revenue recognition and receivables management.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 53.8 indicates moderate risk, particularly with an eq_receivables score of only 1.4/100, suggesting potential issues in revenue collection.
SGAI of 2.2361 is significantly above 1, indicating aggressive selling, which may raise concerns about sustainability of sales growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.4652 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
High eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 suggests strong cash conversion from earnings, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty LICOGI, holds 18.5%, indicating a significant institutional presence which may provide stability. However, the fragmented individual ownership could lead to governance challenges.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor revenue recognition practices closely, given the low receivables score. Consider a cautious approach, focusing on operational cash flow and management's ability to sustain sales growth.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.90

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.35

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-9.3%

Volatility

42.2%

Max Drawdown

-45.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

36.25P/E

P/B1.79

P/S8.48

ROE5.1%

ROA3.5%

EPS717.16

BVPS14491.43

Gross Margin41.9%

Net Margin23.4%

D/E0.43

Current Ratio2.75

Rev Growth-30.4%

Profit Growth28.9%

EV/EBITDA34.99

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

30.9M

Charter Capital

308.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L14 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty LICOGI

Inst

18.5%

5.7 trieu

Phạm Gia Lý

Indiv

8.3%

2.6 trieu

Nguyễn Thúy Ngư

Indiv

1.7%

525.934

Phạm Hùng Sơn

Indiv

1.0%

319.710

Phạm Hùng Cường

Indiv

1.0%

317.390

Nguyễn Mạnh Tuấn

Indiv

0.6%

183.159

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Tài Chính và Bất Động Sản LFI

Inst

0.3%

100.000

Trần Thế Bình

Indiv

0.3%

19.700

Nguyễn Văn Tuấn

Indiv

0.3%

60.000

Nguyễn Vũ Quảng

Indiv

0.2%

8.120

Nguyễn Thị Sim

Indiv

0.2%

13.314

Lê Thị Thanh

Indiv

0.2%

6.080

Hoàng Hàng Hải

Indiv

0.2%

54.154

Phạm Gia Khánh

Indiv

0.2%

50.000

Phạm Văn Quang

Indiv

0.1%

43.317

Hà Minh Tiến

Indiv

0.1%

14.264

Board & Management

Phạm Gia Lý8.3%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Thành viên

Phạm Hùng Sơn1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Hùng Cường1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Mạnh Tuấn0.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Tuấn0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Hàng Hải0.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lại Xuân Hùng

Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Thị Vân Nga

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Hà Văn Lợi

Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Hồng Quân

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Như Thái

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Huỳnh Thành Hậu

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Phan Lan Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

CKD89.1%LQN64.8%LG951.0%BHA41.0%GEX23.6%VTZ20.2%L1218.5%LIG18.5%L1818.5%CNN10.1%DCF8.5%VPC6.7%

Computed 12/04/2026