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Construction sector

L18

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng số 18
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
24.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.624
Current
24.300
Gap
-68.6%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
16.67%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.20%
x
D/(D+E)
83.33%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
20.832
50%DCF Value
-5.585
Blended Intrinsic
7.624
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L18

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

43
Weak
Accrual Quality
93
Cash Conversion
34
Receivables
33
Margin Stability
17
Revenue Quality
17

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.19
Moderate
DSRI
0.673
GMI
0.519
AQI
1.548
SGI
1.598
DEPI
1.036
SGAI
1.165
TATA
0.020
LVGI
0.949

L18 exhibits an elevated risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.1944, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Despite a relatively strong earnings quality score of 54.1, significant concerns arise from low cash conversion and revenue metrics.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1944 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show an alarming 0.0/100 for both eq_margin and eq_revenue, suggesting severe issues with profitability and revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • A DSRI of 0.6731 indicates that the company is managing its receivables effectively, which could be a positive sign in terms of sales growth relative to accounts receivable.
  • The eq_accrual score of 92.1/100 suggests that the company is generating earnings that are less reliant on accruals, which is a positive indicator of earnings quality.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Bùi Thanh Tuyên holding 50.6%, which raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest. The presence of institutional investors at 9.0% may provide some oversight, but overall risk remains high due to individual dominance.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in L18, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices. Monitoring upcoming financial disclosures for improvements in earnings quality metrics is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.55
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.83
Negative
Composite
21
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-17.4%
Volatility
24.5%
Max Drawdown
-37.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.08P/E
P/B1.48
P/S0.25
ROE23.3%
ROA3.1%
EPS3687.62
BVPS17579.73
Gross Margin7.5%
Net Margin3.5%
D/E4.81
Current Ratio1.49
Rev Growth-2.0%
Profit Growth-17.3%
EV/EBITDA9.11
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
45.7M
Charter Capital
457.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L18 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Bùi Thanh Tuyên
Indiv
50.6%
23.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Hạ tầng Vĩnh Phúc
Inst
9.0%
4.1 trieu
Văn Phụng Hà
Indiv
7.5%
407.500
Nguyễn Thị Thủy
Indiv
4.2%
342.900
Tổng Công ty LICOGI
Inst
4.2%
1.6 trieu
Nguyễn Đình Thủy
Indiv
2.4%
545.850
Đặng Văn Giang
Indiv
1.8%
828.796
Nguyễn Thị Thủy
Indiv
1.5%
342.900
Phạm Văn Nhạ
Indiv
1.4%
75.300
Đặng Văn Long
Indiv
1.3%
70.000
Ngô Văn Nam
Indiv
1.3%
576.960
Đỗ Thị Nhung
Indiv
1.0%
467.040
Nguyễn Thị Kim Xinh
Indiv
0.9%
433.917
Nguyễn Xuân Hưng
Indiv
0.8%
366.400
Trịnh Việt Dũng
Indiv
0.8%
355.200
Đào Đình Chiến
Indiv
0.6%
33.400
Lê Văn Tiến
Indiv
0.5%
24.500
Nguyễn Duy Trung
Indiv
0.3%
18.000
Nguyễn Long Điền
Indiv
0.3%
100.000
Bùi Thị Nguyên Hạnh
Indiv
0.2%
12.500
Hoàng Thị Mết
Indiv
0.2%
12.050
Đào Đức Tài
Indiv
0.2%
84.000
Nguyễn Văn Vũ
Indiv
0.2%
10.000
Trần Quang Miến
Indiv
0.2%
10.000
Bùi Văn Tiến
Indiv
0.1%
64.248
Lưu Bá Thái
Indiv
0.1%
58.092
Nguyễn Quang Khuê
Indiv
0.1%
24.000
Board & Management
Bùi Thanh Tuyên50.6%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đình Thủy2.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đặng Văn Giang1.8%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thị Nhung1.0%
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Kim Xinh0.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Xuân Hưng0.8%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Việt Dũng0.8%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Long Điền0.3%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đào Đức Tài0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lưu Bá Thái0.1%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Dương Quốc Khánh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Công Phách
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Ngọc Chung
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Lan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Thân Thị Len
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hữu Nghĩa
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hà Hồng Quang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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