TL4

Construction

Tổng Công ty Xây dựng Thủy lợi 4 - Công ty Cổ phần

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

11.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

12.134

Current

11.000

Gap

+10.3%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

33.86%

Kd(1-t)

4.39%

D/(D+E)

66.14%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

6.295

50%DCF Value

17.973

Blended Intrinsic

12.134

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TL4

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.73

Low Risk

DSRI

0.644

GMI

0.745

AQI

0.959

SGI

1.350

DEPI

1.006

SGAI

0.358

TATA

-0.044

LVGI

0.972

TL4 exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7303, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 65.6/100 reveals significant weaknesses in revenue and margin quality, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags

SGI at 1.3503 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for both eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating potential issues with profitability and revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

The cash conversion and receivables metrics are both at 100.0/100, indicating strong cash flow management and effective collection practices.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding 76.8% of shares. This could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly with individual shareholders holding significant stakes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TL4's growth strategies and earnings quality metrics. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach, considering the concentrated ownership and potential risks in revenue recognition.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.43

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.32

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+15.5%

Volatility

101.4%

Max Drawdown

-47.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

156.29P/E

P/B1.00

P/S3.84

ROE0.6%

ROA0.2%

EPS70.38

BVPS10960.00

Gross Margin31.4%

Net Margin2.5%

D/E1.80

Current Ratio0.80

Rev Growth35.0%

Profit Growth-41.6%

EV/EBITDA4.27

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

16.0M

Charter Capital

160.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TL4 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Lâm Thanh Cường

Indiv

21.0%

3.2 trieu

Phạm Xuân Trường

Indiv

18.8%

2.7 trieu

Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam

Inst

17.0%

2.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh thủy hải sản Sài Gòn

Inst

14.9%

2.3 trieu

Trần Nho Thái

Indiv

5.1%

808.370

Hồ Ngọc Hùng

Indiv

4.1%

597.300

Phạm Hữu Lạc

Indiv

1.2%

197.265

Sầm Thị Thu Hương

Indiv

0.1%

16.354

Tạ Thị Minh Sô

Indiv

0.1%

24.361

Board & Management

Chu Quang Tuấn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

ĐINH VĂN VÂN

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Văn Thạc

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Thị Thu Hà

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Vũ Hùng

Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Tiến Luận

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Quang Thế

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Nho Thái

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Duy Minh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Hữu Phước

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

RTB98.5%BRR97.5%MDF84.9%RBC69.1%PHR66.6%GER64.4%TRC60.0%DPR55.2%HRC55.1%BRC48.9%NTC20.4%QST18.8%

Computed 12/04/2026