GER
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GER
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2024
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2017
The Beneish M-Score of -2.3771 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, but the earnings quality score of 53.4 suggests potential concerns regarding the sustainability of reported earnings. The high concentration of ownership by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) adds a layer of risk due to potential political influences.
- Earnings quality score of 53.4 indicates moderate risk, particularly with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggesting significant discrepancies between reported earnings and actual cash flows.
- The DSRI of 1.1890 indicates potential issues with inventory management, which could signal overstatement of revenues.
- The Beneish M-Score of -2.3771 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
- High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow generation.
The top two shareholders, both state-owned enterprises, control 91.2% of the company, which raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest, limiting minority shareholder influence.
Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider the implications of high ownership concentration. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality indicators before making significant investment decisions.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for GER — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate