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Cyclicals sector

RBC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Công Nghiệp và Xuất nhập khẩu Cao Su
Hóa chấtCT
6.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.854
Current
6.800
Gap
+0.8%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA2.61B
Fair EV/EBITDA39.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
2.61B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
39.0x
-
Net Debt
32.95B
=
Equity Value
6.854
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — RBC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

82
Good
Accrual Quality
74
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.33
Moderate
DSRI
0.549
GMI
1.233
AQI
2.714
SGI
1.023
DEPI
0.599
SGAI
0.836
TATA
-0.065
LVGI
0.838

RBC exhibits an elevated risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -2.3296, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Despite strong earnings quality metrics, particularly in cash conversion and receivables, the overall financial health remains questionable due to potential red flags in revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.3296 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 suggests significant issues in revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 82.2/100 reflects strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100), indicating operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam holding 69.1%, raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest, limiting minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly regarding revenue recognition practices, before considering any investment in RBC.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.60
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.21
Positive
Composite
68
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+14.3%
Volatility
151.9%
Max Drawdown
-48.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
27.67P/E
P/B0.46
P/S0.20
ROE1.7%
ROA1.0%
EPS242.16
BVPS14590.08
Gross Margin6.8%
Net Margin0.7%
D/E0.54
Current Ratio2.74
Rev Growth2.3%
Profit Growth-15.0%
EV/EBITDA58.66
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.0M
Charter Capital
100.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for RBC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam
Inst
69.1%
6.9 trieu
Công ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Tổng Công ty Cao Su Đồng Nai
Inst
13.3%
1.3 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Phương Đông
Indiv
3.3%
333.330
Phùng Bá Thành
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Lê Thị Ngọc Lý
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Nguyễn Hồng Minh
Indiv
0.2%
16.000
Bùi Văn Dũng
Indiv
0.1%
14.650
Trần Công Hải
Indiv
0.1%
10.600
Phan Đình Phúc
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Nguyễn Văn Minh
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Board & Management
Trần Công Hải0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Đình Phúc0.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Trọng Quỳnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đoàn Kim Tài
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trọng Hùng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thu Hường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Tuấn Linh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Giang Hoa Vũ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hiệp
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Bảo Châu
Kế toán trưởng
Võ Thành Nhân
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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