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Cyclicals sector

PHR

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Phước Hòa
Hóa chấtCT
61.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
58.605
Current
61.800
Gap
-5.2%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA378.41B
Fair EV/EBITDA19.9x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
378.41B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
19.9x
-
Net Debt
-428.94B
=
Equity Value
58.605
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PHR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

84
Good
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
96
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
72
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.75
Low Risk
DSRI
0.690
GMI
0.922
AQI
1.107
SGI
1.099
DEPI
0.887
SGAI
1.152
TATA
-0.013
LVGI
0.911

PHR exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7473, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 84.2/100, along with strong cash conversion metrics, suggests robust financial health.

Red Flags
  • The revenue quality score is 0.0/100, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition or sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong earnings quality metrics with eq_accrual at 94.6/100 and eq_cash_conv at 95.6/100, suggesting effective cash management and accrual accounting.
Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam at 66.6% indicates a stable control structure, but could also pose risks related to governance and minority shareholder rights.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor revenue recognition practices closely due to the concerning revenue quality score while considering the overall strong earnings quality and low manipulation risk as a basis for potential investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.67
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.15
Positive
Composite
70
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+21.2%
Volatility
40.0%
Max Drawdown
-39.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
15.94P/E
P/B2.02
P/S4.56
ROE13.2%
ROA8.5%
EPS3789.27
BVPS29967.32
Gross Margin28.1%
Net Margin28.6%
D/E0.45
Current Ratio5.11
Rev Growth9.8%
Profit Growth11.6%
EV/EBITDA17.57
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
135.5M
Charter Capital
1355.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PHR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam
Inst
66.6%
90.3 trieu
asia value investment limited
Inst
5.0%
3.9 trieu
VOF Investment Limited
Inst
3.0%
4.0 trieu
Halley Sicav - Halley Asian Prosperity
Inst
3.0%
2.3 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Tiếp Cận Thị Trường VinaCapital
Inst
0.7%
940.500
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Hưng Thịnh Vinacapital
Inst
0.4%
550.600
Quỹ Đầu tư Cân bằng Tuệ Sáng Vinacapital
Inst
0.4%
486.600
Nguyễn Văn Tược
Indiv
0.3%
428.506
Nguyễn Thị Thủy
Indiv
0.3%
369.053
Quỹ Đầu tư Lợi Thế Cạnh Tranh Bền Vững SSI
Inst
0.2%
334.666
Công ty TNHH Bảo hiểm nhân thọ Generali Việt Nam
Inst
0.2%
289.600
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Cổ tức Năng động VinaCapital
Inst
0.2%
205.400
Công ty Cổ phần Công nghiệp Cao su Miền Nam
Inst
0.1%
100.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Tược0.3%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Kim Nhựt
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Hoàng Giang
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thành Đức
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Võ Thanh Hải
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Lam Hồng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Hữu Tín
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Thị Phi Nga
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Thanh Tùng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Phong Thành
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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