DPR

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Đồng Phú

Hóa chấtCT

40.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

37.546

Current

40.500

Gap

-7.3%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→366.37B

Fair EV/EBITDA→8.1x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

366.37B

Fair EV/EBITDA

8.1x

Net Debt

-286.18B

Equity Value

37.546

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DPR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.45

Moderate

DSRI

0.984

GMI

0.817

AQI

0.913

SGI

0.970

DEPI

0.962

SGAI

0.996

TATA

0.045

LVGI

1.014

DPR exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.45, indicating a low likelihood of manipulation but with notable weaknesses in earnings quality. The earnings quality score of 64.6 suggests potential issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could raise concerns among investors.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 64.6 indicates potential issues with cash conversion (33.3/100) and revenue recognition (0.0/100), which are critical for assessing the sustainability of earnings.
Beneish M-Score of -2.45, while below the manipulation threshold, reflects a concerning trend in financial metrics that warrant close monitoring.

Positive Signals

Strong receivables (100.0/100) and margin metrics (100.0/100) suggest effective management of sales and profitability, which are positive indicators for operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam holding 55.2%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest affecting minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor DPR's cash conversion and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach due to the elevated risk level. Engaging with management for clarity on earnings quality metrics is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.71

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.25

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-4.5%

Volatility

35.7%

Max Drawdown

-34.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.86P/E

P/B1.32

P/S2.89

ROE12.4%

ROA6.8%

EPS3637.99

BVPS29978.69

Gross Margin38.9%

Net Margin26.6%

D/E0.39

Current Ratio8.34

Rev Growth-3.0%

Profit Growth20.6%

EV/EBITDA7.05

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

86.9M

Charter Capital

868.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hóa chất

Industry (ICB L3)

Hóa chất

Sub-industry

Nhựa, cao su & sợi

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DPR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam

Inst

55.2%

48.0 trieu

Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity

Inst

5.0%

2.1 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

5.0%

2.0 trieu

Ftif - Templeton Frontier Markets Fund

Inst

0.6%

259.480

nguyen-thanh-hai

Indiv

0.2%

155.000

Board & Management

Phạm Phi Điểu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Huỳnh Minh Tâm

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Huỳnh Trọng Thủy

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Kim Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Hồ Cường

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Huỳnh Nhật

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Ngọc Huy

Kế toán trưởng

Lưu Minh Tuyến

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Văn Hà

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Thị Thu Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thanh Tâm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

RTB98.5%BRR97.5%MDF84.9%RBC69.1%PHR66.6%GER64.4%TRC2 links HRC55.2%BRC55.2%NTC55.2%TL455.2%VRG55.2%

Computed 12/04/2026