Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 26.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 28.390
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.7236th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%11th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.4146 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers), signalling more aggressive accounting metrics than most Vietnamese companies and a year-over-year rise of +1.07. Key forensic signals: a high DSRI (1.6625) and very weak receivables-quality metrics (Receivables quality 0.0/100; receivables outside the trade cycle 0.1% of assets), contrasted with strong solvency and fundamentals (Altman Z-Score 7.49 — safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 7/9).
- Beneish M-Score -1.4146 (81st percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.07). The M-Score aggregates eight ratios to screen for earnings manipulation tendencies; the company sits above most Vietnam peers and has moved meaningfully year-over-year.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivables Index) = 1.6625. DSRI > 1 implies receivables are growing faster than sales, signalling longer collection or revenue timing differences relative to prior year.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (11th percentile). The earnings-quality module scores receivables quality at its minimum, indicating concerns about how revenue/receivables are recognised or classified despite the small absolute balance outside the trade cycle.
- Revenue quality = 15.9/100. Low revenue-quality scores reflect a weak relationship between reported revenues and cash/earnings drivers used in the model.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.72 (36th percentile). This suggests profits are not converting into cash as strongly as most peers; the Vietnamese ranking shows relatively weaker cash conversion.
- Altman Z-Score = 7.49 (safe zone). The Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy using liquidity, profitability, leverage and activity ratios; 7.49 indicates a comfortable buffer on that metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. The F-Score measures nine fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 7 indicates generally strong underlying fundamentals.
- TATA (total accruals to assets) = 0.0736 and Accruals quality = 70.6/100. Accruals are present but accruals-quality is above average in the earnings-quality module, partially offsetting accrual-related manipulation concerns.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 1.0403; GMI (gross margin index) = 0.9971; DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.9362. These individual Beneish components do not show extreme pressure from rapidly falling gross margins or accelerated depreciation policies.
The share register is highly concentrated: Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam (a state-controlled industrial group) holds 98.5% of shares. Minority free float is extremely small; director-deal registrations for the latest 12 months show one purchase registration totalling 10,000 shares (+0.01% of shares outstanding) and no sale registrations. High state-group ownership implies group control and related-party transactions are likely important in the filings.
- Compare the 2025 year-end trade receivables ageing schedule with the related-party receivables note to confirm whether the increases reflected in DSRI are within normal trade terms or related-party/non-trade balances.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes for 2023–2025 to explain the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.72; examine the notes on changes in working capital (inventory, receivables, payables).
- Inspect the prepayments and loans-receivable schedules and the related-party disclosures for amounts and counterparties (given receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of assets) to verify classification and contractual terms.
- Review the revenue recognition policy note and any schedules showing long-term contracts or deferred revenue to assess drivers of the low revenue-quality score (15.9/100) and the elevated DSRI.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.06
- P/S
- 1.79
- ROE
- 21.7%
- ROA
- 13.2%
- EPS
- 4.773
- BVPS
- 23.494
- Gross Margin
- 41.0%
- Net Margin
- 45.2%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 4.52
- Rev Growth
- +4.0%
- Profit Growth
- +6.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.73
- Div Yield
- 8.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 87.9M
- Charter Capital
- 879B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT