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Utilities sector

BSA

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Buôn Đôn
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
21.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
19.331
Current
21.400
Gap
-9.7%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.69%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.000
Payout ratio60.8%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.000
Base Growth
2.69%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
19.331
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BSA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

60
Fair
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
85
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
20
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.14
Moderate
DSRI
1.122
GMI
0.814
AQI
1.146
SGI
1.240
DEPI
0.862
SGAI
0.853
TATA
-0.006
LVGI
0.777

BSA exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -2.1389, which is below the manipulation threshold. While the earnings quality score of 60.4 indicates moderate performance, the low revenue quality score raises significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1389 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 suggests severe issues with revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • High accrual quality score of 97.6/100 indicates that earnings are likely backed by actual cash flows.
  • Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of accounts receivable.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among institutional investors, which may lead to conflicts of interest and reduced transparency in decision-making. The top three shareholders hold a combined 71% stake, potentially limiting minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor BSA's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation. It may be prudent to wait for improved revenue quality metrics before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.58
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.23
Positive
Composite
52
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+6.3%
Volatility
20.5%
Max Drawdown
-11.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.62P/E
P/B1.45
P/S3.81
ROE17.3%
ROA12.9%
EPS2428.95
BVPS14462.01
Gross Margin46.7%
Net Margin44.2%
D/E0.29
Current Ratio1.95
Rev Growth24.0%
Profit Growth130.9%
EV/EBITDA5.51
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
66.9M
Charter Capital
668.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BSA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Điện 4
Inst
31.0%
20.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Bà Rịa
Inst
25.0%
16.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Phả Lại
Inst
15.0%
10.0 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Luân
Indiv
9.3%
6.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng 47
Inst
8.0%
3.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Điện 2
Inst
5.0%
3.3 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Quế Nga
Indiv
0.6%
407.550
Nguyễn Thị Tuyết
Indiv
0.6%
227.000
Vũ Thành Danh
Indiv
0.3%
199.556
nguyen-quynh-mai
Indiv
0.3%
102.150
An Văn Sình
Indiv
0.1%
55.239
Board & Management
Vũ Thành Danh0.3%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hoa
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Hoài Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Quốc Thái
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Hoàng Triều
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Quang Vũ
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Hải Quang
Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Văn Tùng
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Thị Kiều Vi
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Thị Trang
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Hương Giang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Tuyết Loan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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