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Utilities sector

PPC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Phả Lại
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
10.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
19.726
Current
10.800
Gap
+82.7%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend1.25%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.075
Payout ratio107.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.075
Base Growth
1.25%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
19.726
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PPC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

54
Fair
Accrual Quality
89
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
69
Margin Stability
10
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.03
Low Risk
DSRI
0.701
GMI
0.758
AQI
1.046
SGI
0.855
DEPI
1.080
SGAI
0.850
TATA
-0.029
LVGI
0.810

PPC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.0297, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 53.5 suggests moderate quality, with strong cash conversion metrics but concerning revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 53.5 indicates moderate risk, particularly with an eq_margin of 9.6/100 and eq_revenue of 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.
  • The DSRI of 0.7014 indicates that accounts receivable are growing slower than revenue, which could signal conservative revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The strong cash conversion rate of 100.0/100 in the earnings quality metrics indicates effective cash management.
  • A Beneish M-Score of -3.0297 is well below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Phát điện 2 holding 51.0%, which may lead to potential governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor revenue recognition practices closely due to the low eq_revenue score. However, the strong cash conversion and low risk of manipulation suggest a cautious buy position.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.31
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.89
Negative
Composite
50
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-9.4%
Volatility
11.7%
Max Drawdown
-21.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
20.74P/E
P/B0.79
P/S0.54
ROE3.8%
ROA3.2%
EPS520.66
BVPS13705.03
Gross Margin3.9%
Net Margin2.6%
D/E0.17
Current Ratio3.21
Rev Growth-14.5%
Profit Growth-60.2%
EV/EBITDA15.52
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
326.2M
Charter Capital
3262.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PPC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 2
Inst
51.0%
166.4 trieu
Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree
Inst
20.1%
64.5 trieu
Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity
Inst
5.0%
16.0 trieu
Ngân hàng Deutsche Aktiengesellschaft
Inst
5.0%
16.2 trieu
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch
Inst
4.9%
16.1 trieu
VanEck Vietnam ETF
Inst
4.0%
12.9 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đại chúng Việt Nam
Inst
2.4%
7.8 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thế Sơn
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Hoàng Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Anh Duy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Xuân Dũng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quang Quyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Gia Hùng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Lê Tuấn Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Nguyên Đồng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Quyền
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Quách Vĩnh Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Thủy
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Quyên
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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