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Utilities sector

QTP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Quảng Ninh
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
13.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
19.332
Current
13.800
Gap
+40.1%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.69%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.000
Payout ratio59.1%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.000
Base Growth
2.69%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
19.332
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — QTP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

38
Weak
Accrual Quality
66
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
12
Margin Stability
12
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.03
Low Risk
DSRI
1.206
GMI
0.489
AQI
0.926
SGI
0.906
DEPI
0.820
SGAI
1.160
TATA
-0.084
LVGI
0.738

QTP exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -3.0304, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 38.0/100, driven by poor receivables and revenue metrics, raises additional concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.0304 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 38.0/100 reflects significant weaknesses in revenue recognition and receivables management.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily dominated by state-owned and institutional investors, with the top five shareholders holding over 80% of shares. This concentration can lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should proceed with caution, closely monitoring QTP's financial disclosures and earnings reports for signs of improvement in earnings quality and transparency. Consider a wait-and-see approach until clearer signals of financial health emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.45
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.23
Negative
Composite
42
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-2.8%
Volatility
16.3%
Max Drawdown
-10.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.37P/E
P/B0.95
P/S0.52
ROE19.1%
ROA13.8%
EPS2336.23
BVPS13211.38
Gross Margin14.1%
Net Margin9.7%
D/E0.31
Current Ratio3.11
Rev Growth-9.4%
Profit Growth69.8%
EV/EBITDA2.85
Div Yield8.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
450.0M
Charter Capital
4500.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for QTP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 1
Inst
42.0%
189.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Phả Lại
Inst
16.4%
73.6 trieu
Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước
State
11.4%
51.4 trieu
Tổng Công ty Điện lực TKV
Inst
10.6%
47.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh
Inst
1.7%
7.6 trieu
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam
Inst
1.2%
5.3 trieu
Nguyễn Thế Hưng
Indiv
0.1%
17.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thế Hùng0.1%
Phó Giám đốc
Trương Quang Vệ
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Mạnh Cường
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tuấn Anh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quang Huy
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Diệp
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hồ Nguyễn Phương Trâm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Sinh Nghĩa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Việt Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Duy An
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Vũ Linh
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Văn Tạo
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Việt Cường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Minh Nghĩa
Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Loan
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Huy Vũ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Văn Điện
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Hoàng Yến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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