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Utilities sector

BTP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Bà Rịa
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
8.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
31.680
Current
8.500
Gap
+272.7%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.680
Payout ratio195.6%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.680
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
31.680
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BTP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

44
Weak
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
92
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
28
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.83
Low Risk
DSRI
1.273
GMI
0.233
AQI
1.137
SGI
0.737
DEPI
0.848
SGAI
1.365
TATA
-0.004
LVGI
0.737

BTP exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8262, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, the earnings quality score of 43.7/100 reveals significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin metrics. The concentrated ownership structure raises concerns about governance and decision-making transparency.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 43.7/100, with 0.0/100 in eq_receivables and eq_revenue, indicating potential revenue recognition issues.
  • High DSRI of 1.2732 suggests increasing receivables relative to sales, which can indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.8262, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • High accrual score of 98.4/100 indicates strong cash flow management relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership concentration with 79.6% held by Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3 may lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of this major shareholder over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor BTP closely for signs of revenue recognition issues and consider diversifying exposure due to ownership concentration risks. A deeper analysis of financial statements is recommended to assess the sustainability of earnings.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.24
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-1.98
Negative
Composite
45
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-26.9%
Volatility
16.0%
Max Drawdown
-33.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.46P/E
P/B0.48
P/S1.95
ROE3.9%
ROA3.3%
EPS682.07
BVPS17775.80
Gross Margin16.3%
Net Margin15.7%
D/E0.14
Current Ratio4.75
Rev Growth-26.3%
Profit Growth-3.6%
EV/EBITDA9.27
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
60.5M
Charter Capital
604.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BTP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3
Inst
79.6%
48.1 trieu
Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity
Inst
4.9%
3.0 trieu
Board & Management
Đoàn Ngọc Nhân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh
Lê Thế Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Châu Thanh Cần
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Đinh Tuấn Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Thanh Xuân
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Tiến Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Lê Trung Hiếu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Thị Huyền Trang
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lê Văn Huy
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Thùy Linh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Bảo Xuân
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
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