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Utilities sector

HND

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Hải Phòng
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
11.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
18.895
Current
11.800
Gap
+60.1%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.002
Payout ratio134.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.002
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
18.895
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HND

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

52
Fair
Accrual Quality
34
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
25
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.92
Low Risk
DSRI
0.767
GMI
0.656
AQI
0.948
SGI
0.882
DEPI
0.971
SGAI
0.950
TATA
-0.198
LVGI
0.978

HND exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.9151, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 51.7 suggests significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 51.7 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition, particularly an eq_revenue score of 0.0/100.
  • Low eq_margin score of 24.6/100 suggests profitability concerns, which may raise questions about operational efficiency.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.9151 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • Strong cash conversion (eq_cash_conv of 100.0/100) suggests effective cash management despite lower earnings quality.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholders holding 86.2% of the shares, which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise governance concerns.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor operational performance and earnings quality metrics before making investment decisions, while considering potential governance risks due to concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.64
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.55
Negative
Composite
45
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-14.1%
Volatility
28.8%
Max Drawdown
-18.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.76P/E
P/B0.89
P/S0.55
ROE7.2%
ROA5.9%
EPS842.88
BVPS12118.53
Gross Margin5.6%
Net Margin4.3%
D/E0.21
Current Ratio3.40
Rev Growth-11.8%
Profit Growth62.8%
EV/EBITDA4.72
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
500.0M
Charter Capital
5000.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HND — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 2
Inst
51.0%
255.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt điện Phả Lại
Inst
26.0%
129.8 trieu
Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước
State
9.0%
45.0 trieu
Tổng Công ty Điện lực TKV
Inst
7.2%
36.0 trieu
Công ty TNHH MTV Đầu Tư SCIC
Inst
0.1%
500.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Quyên
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Quốc Toàn
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Thị Dung
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tạ Công Hoan
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Anh Tân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Văn Thời
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Dương Sơn Bá
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Minh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Chu Thế Hoàng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Chính
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hà Quang Giới
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Thủy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Ngọc Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Bảo Yến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Đình Kiên
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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