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Cyclicals sector

L10

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Lilama 10
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
25.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
38.896
Current
25.000
Gap
+55.6%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA46.66B
Fair EV/EBITDA5.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
46.66B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
5.0x
-
Net Debt
-151.40B
=
Equity Value
38.896
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L10

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

54
Fair
Accrual Quality
81
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
1

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.29
Moderate
DSRI
0.782
GMI
0.772
AQI
0.998
SGI
1.340
DEPI
0.785
SGAI
1.021
TATA
0.048
LVGI
0.965

L10 exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.2888, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 54.3/100 indicates moderate risk, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100 suggesting severe issues in converting earnings to cash.
  • SGI of 1.3401 indicates aggressive growth, which may not be sustainable and could mask underlying financial weaknesses.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.2888 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation, providing some assurance to investors.
  • High receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top two shareholders holding over 76% of shares, raises concerns about potential governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protections.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and consider the sustainability of growth before making investment decisions. A deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices is also advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.76
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.06
Positive
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+12.9%
Volatility
61.6%
Max Drawdown
-26.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.81P/E
P/B0.85
P/S0.18
ROE12.9%
ROA2.8%
EPS3808.79
BVPS30605.37
Gross Margin6.2%
Net Margin2.6%
D/E3.29
Current Ratio1.39
Rev Growth34.0%
Profit Growth36.7%
EV/EBITDA1.35
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.9M
Charter Capital
98.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L10 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Đặng Văn Long
Indiv
40.4%
4.0 trieu
Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam
Inst
36.0%
3.6 trieu
Trịnh Ngọc Tuấn Hùng
Indiv
10.6%
1.0 trieu
Đỗ Văn Nhuận
Indiv
3.8%
379.991
Trần Đình Đại
Indiv
2.9%
258.820
Nguyễn Đức Tuấn
Indiv
0.5%
45.617
Vũ Duy Thêm
Indiv
0.4%
38.621
Lê Văn Đồng
Indiv
0.1%
9.000
Nguyễn Đình Tình
Indiv
0.1%
10.461
Board & Management
Đặng Văn Long40.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Ngọc Tuấn Hùng10.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Đức Tuấn0.5%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đình Tình0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Khắc Tuyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Viết Xuân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Đăng Giáp
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Thế Vinh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hoàng Hà
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Hào Quang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hồng Đăng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Thu Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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