CDR

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Cao su Đồng Nai

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

4.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.449

Current

4.500

Gap

-1.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

30.08%

Kd(1-t)

5.89%

D/(D+E)

69.92%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.53%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

3.578

50%DCF Value

5.321

Blended Intrinsic

4.449

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CDR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.25

Moderate

DSRI

0.350

GMI

0.836

AQI

0.956

SGI

1.171

DEPI

0.801

SGAI

0.925

TATA

0.167

LVGI

0.965

CDR exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -2.2481, which is below the threshold for likely manipulation. While the earnings quality score of 40.8 indicates some strengths, the low cash conversion and revenue metrics raise significant concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.2481 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality score of 40.8/100, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue (0.0/100) metrics, suggests poor earnings sustainability.

Positive Signals

Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.
Low DSRI of 0.3499 suggests that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 29.0%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. Institutional ownership at 46.3% may provide some stability but also raises concerns about alignment with minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should proceed with caution, closely monitoring cash flow and revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to consider a wait-and-see approach until clearer signals of earnings sustainability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.29

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-2.06

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-65.1%

Volatility

53.2%

Max Drawdown

-73.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

10.08P/E

P/B0.50

P/S0.10

ROE5.0%

ROA1.4%

EPS614.87

BVPS12330.71

Gross Margin9.0%

Net Margin1.0%

D/E2.32

Current Ratio1.42

Rev Growth16.9%

Profit Growth4.3%

EV/EBITDA3.92

Div Yield9.7%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.1M

Charter Capital

21.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CDR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Tổng Công ty Cao Su Đồng Nai

Inst

29.0%

618.666

Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Hòa Bình

Inst

12.5%

266.666

Lê Thị Phương Loan

Indiv

5.8%

93.500

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn ST8

Inst

4.8%

103.300

Lê Văn Liêm

Indiv

4.0%

64.700

Nguyễn Hiền Nhân

Indiv

2.6%

55.000

Hồ Văn Nhã

Indiv

1.7%

35.600

Pham Thị Minh Dung

Indiv

1.3%

28.000

Hoàng Trọng Việt Hùng

Indiv

1.0%

15.400

Nguyễn Văn Thạnh

Indiv

0.6%

13.333

Trần Thúy Nga

Indiv

0.6%

13.333

Nguyễn Văn Thảo

Indiv

0.6%

13.133

Lê Thị Ích

Indiv

0.6%

12.033

Nguyễn Duy Văn

Indiv

0.3%

7.066

Nguyễn Trọng Hùng

Indiv

0.2%

4.000

Đặng Hoàng Lâm

Indiv

0.1%

2.928

Board & Management

Lê Văn Liêm4.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Văn Nhã1.7%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Thạnh0.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Thảo0.6%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Duy Văn0.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Trọng Hùng0.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Cao Sơn

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Chí Hiếu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Quang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Khoa Nguyên

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

BAX36.1%RBC29.0%VRG29.0%DXL17.8%GDA12.9%GTA12.5%DTG5.8%EMG3.0%CTF2.5%VWS2.2%VC72.1%LG91.0%

Computed 12/04/2026