GTA
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GTA
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2017
The Beneish M-Score of -2.0686 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 53.9 suggests moderate concerns, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could pose risks in financial reporting.
- Earnings Quality Score of 53.9 indicates potential issues, especially with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggesting that reported earnings may not be translating into actual cash flow.
- The DSRI of 1.3172 is above 1, indicating that accounts receivable are growing faster than sales, which could signal revenue recognition issues.
- The GMI of 1.0647 is slightly above 1, suggesting that gross margins are stable, which is a positive indicator for profitability.
- The high receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable, which is a positive aspect of earnings quality.
The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 51.8%. This could lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the majority shareholder's interests over minority shareholders.
Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and accounts receivable trends, considering the elevated risk from earnings quality concerns. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for improved cash conversion metrics before making significant investments.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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> mapping common ownership for GTA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate