CLM

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Than - Vinacomin

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT

75.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

62.954

Current

75.500

Gap

-16.6%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→96.13B

Fair EV/EBITDA→10.9x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

96.13B

Fair EV/EBITDA

10.9x

Net Debt

356.48B

Equity Value

62.954

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CLM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.15

High Risk

DSRI

2.081

GMI

0.962

AQI

0.680

SGI

0.933

DEPI

2.527

SGAI

1.384

TATA

0.323

LVGI

1.246

The forensic assessment of CLM indicates elevated risk due to significant earnings quality concerns and potential manipulation signals. The Beneish M-Score of -0.1525 suggests that while manipulation is not highly likely, the high DSRI and low earnings quality score raise red flags.

Red Flags

DSRI of 2.0813 indicates potential issues with inventory management, suggesting overstatement of revenue.
Earnings Quality Score of 28.7/100 reflects poor cash conversion (0.0/100), indicating reliance on accruals rather than cash flow.
DEPI of 2.5268 suggests aggressive revenue recognition practices that may not align with actual sales.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could imply effective collection processes.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam (55.4%) suggests potential influence over financial reporting practices, which could pose risks related to transparency and accountability.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor CLM's financial disclosures, particularly focusing on cash flow performance and inventory management. Consider a deeper analysis of operational efficiency and potential impacts of state ownership on governance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

10.64

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.12

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-12.3%

Volatility

46.1%

Max Drawdown

-25.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

11.21P/E

P/B1.04

P/S0.05

ROE9.5%

ROA4.7%

EPS6733.04

BVPS72694.17

Gross Margin2.4%

Net Margin0.5%

D/E1.22

Current Ratio1.75

Rev Growth-6.7%

Profit Growth-50.2%

EV/EBITDA12.35

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

11.0M

Charter Capital

110.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Khai khoáng

Sub-industry

Khai thác Than

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CLM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam

Inst

55.4%

6.1 trieu

nguyen-thanh-huong

Indiv

6.0%

656.412

Nguyễn Văn Cừ

Indiv

4.6%

502.673

Phạm Hồng Khánh

Indiv

2.6%

287.809

Nguyễn Thái Hà

Indiv

2.4%

260.718

nguyen-thi-loi

Indiv

1.9%

212.749

Đinh Thị Vân

Indiv

1.1%

119.488

Lê Thị Thu Trang

Indiv

0.7%

76.608

Trần Xuân Hòa

Indiv

0.5%

59.744

Bùi Thị Minh Thư

Indiv

0.5%

52.515

Hoàng Đức Phương

Indiv

0.4%

47.339

nguyen-thanh-hai

Indiv

0.3%

37.040

Nguyễn Thanh Nga

Indiv

0.2%

18.410

Phạm Minh

Indiv

0.1%

17.533

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Ngân

Indiv

0.1%

16.500

Nguyễn Mạnh Điệp

Indiv

0.1%

13.559

Phạm Mai Lan

Indiv

0.1%

13.441

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Điệp

Indiv

0.1%

11.725

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Cứ4.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thu Trang0.7%

Phó Giám đốc/Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Thị Minh Thư0.5%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thanh Hải0.3%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Minh0.1%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Ngân0.1%

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Nguyễn Mạnh Điệp0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Mai Lan0.1%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Diệp0.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Trọng Hùng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thùy Dương

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Lan Anh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

DTK99.3%MVB98.2%KSV98.1%VTM95.2%VBG92.0%MGC86.6%HLC74.2%TMB67.4%TVD66.8%CST65.1%MDC65.0%NBC65.0%

Computed 12/04/2026