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Consumer sector

COM

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Vật tư - Xăng dầu
Bán lẻCT
31.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
41.506
Current
31.100
Gap
+33.5%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTBán lẻConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
89.59%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.38%
x
D/(D+E)
10.41%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.10%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF28.00B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
28.00B
Growth Rate
3.10%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
41.506
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — COM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

76
Good
Accrual Quality
94
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
4
Margin Stability
98
Revenue Quality
79

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.86
Moderate
DSRI
1.474
GMI
0.926
AQI
2.082
SGI
0.889
DEPI
0.911
SGAI
1.058
TATA
-0.014
LVGI
1.077

The Beneish M-Score of -1.8561 indicates a potential risk of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 76.0 suggests relatively strong operational performance, particularly in cash conversion and margins.

Red Flags
  • Beneish DSRI of 1.4737 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • The low AQI score of 2.0824 indicates potential concerns with the quality of earnings, particularly in receivables.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings quality metrics show a high eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100, indicating strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
  • The eq_margin score of 97.8/100 reflects strong profitability, suggesting operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Dầu Khí Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh, holds a significant 39.6% stake, indicating potential influence over corporate governance, which can be a double-edged sword in terms of decision-making and transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's receivables and revenue recognition practices due to the elevated risk signals. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for clearer financial disclosures before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
12.80
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.07
Positive
Composite
70
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+12.0%
Volatility
44.7%
Max Drawdown
-31.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
15.16P/E
P/B1.02
P/S0.12
ROE6.7%
ROA6.0%
EPS2051.37
BVPS30384.31
Gross Margin5.2%
Net Margin0.8%
D/E0.13
Current Ratio3.84
Rev Growth-11.1%
Profit Growth7.8%
EV/EBITDA7.87
Div Yield3.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
14.1M
Charter Capital
141.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Phân phối hàng chuyên dụng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for COM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Dầu Khí Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh
Inst
39.6%
5.6 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Sài Gòn Thương Tín
Inst
5.3%
754.380
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Dầu khí
Inst
3.7%
515.480
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI
Inst
3.6%
502.920
Lê Tấn Thương
Indiv
1.2%
171.370
Phạm Công Quyền
Indiv
0.5%
70.255
Trần Thị Hồng Lĩnh
Indiv
0.5%
66.170
Đinh Viết Thắng
Indiv
0.4%
57.730
Trương Đức Hạnh
Indiv
0.4%
57.250
Dương Thị Đài Trang
Indiv
0.3%
38.910
Lê Khắc Hồng Lan
Indiv
0.1%
14.140
Board & Management
Lê Tấn Thương1.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Công Quyền0.5%
Giám đốc Tài chính/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Chơn Quang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Văn Khoa
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Bùi Huy Thắng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Phương Khanh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Thoại
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Nghĩa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đức Linh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Văn Bách
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Phương Hạnh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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