VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Utilities sector

TMC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Xuất nhập khẩu Thủ Đức
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
8.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
9.423
Current
8.100
Gap
+16.3%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend1.98%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS500
Payout ratio59.1%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
500
Base Growth
1.98%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
9.423
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

50
Weak
Accrual Quality
59
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
20
Margin Stability
70
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.82
Low Risk
DSRI
1.069
GMI
0.917
AQI
1.509
SGI
0.988
DEPI
1.042
SGAI
1.113
TATA
-0.105
LVGI
1.153

TMC shows signs of potential earnings manipulation with a Beneish M-Score of -2.821, well below the threshold indicating risk. While the company has a strong cash conversion rate, its low scores in receivables and revenue quality raise concerns about earnings sustainability.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.821 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 49.7/100, particularly low in receivables (20.4/100) and revenue (0.0/100), suggests issues with revenue recognition and collection.
Positive Signals
  • Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash management.
  • Institutional ownership exceeds 74%, providing stability and potential oversight.
Ownership Risk

The high institutional ownership (74.1%) reduces the risk of erratic management decisions, but reliance on a few large shareholders may lead to governance issues if their interests diverge.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TMC's earnings quality metrics and consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved revenue recognition and receivables management before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.92
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.14
Negative
Composite
39
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-15.4%
Volatility
47.2%
Max Drawdown
-18.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.52P/E
P/B0.52
P/S0.04
ROE4.9%
ROA2.7%
EPS769.72
BVPS15648.93
Gross Margin6.2%
Net Margin0.4%
D/E0.96
Current Ratio1.03
Rev Growth-1.2%
Profit Growth-4.8%
EV/EBITDA1.94
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
12.4M
Charter Capital
124.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam
Inst
51.0%
6.3 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Dầu Khí Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh
Inst
14.9%
1.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Sài Gòn Co.op
Inst
8.2%
1.0 trieu
Ma Đức Tú
Indiv
3.1%
390.100
nguyen-thanh-binh
Indiv
1.6%
192.200
Nguyễn Thị Năm
Indiv
0.9%
113.340
La Tăng Đức
Indiv
0.4%
48.410
Phạm Ngọc Minh
Indiv
0.2%
20.100
Phan Thế Vĩnh
Indiv
0.1%
18.580
Viên Thiên Khanh
Indiv
0.1%
16.350
Đặng Quế Sơn
Indiv
0.1%
15.774
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thanh Bình1.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Viên Thiên Khanh0.1%
Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Thị Mỹ Dung
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
HOÀNG ĐÌNH SƠN
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Hoàng Phúc
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quốc Cường
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nghiêm Thị Thanh Mai
Phó Giám đốc
Huỳnh Ngọc Thành
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn
Phó Giám đốc
Phạm Khắc Vũ Thụy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Phú Khánh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →