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Cyclicals sector

CTT

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Chế tạo máy - Vinacomin
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
16.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
52.759
Current
16.100
Gap
+227.7%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA57.87B
Fair EV/EBITDA5.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
57.87B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
5.0x
-
Net Debt
41.52B
=
Equity Value
52.759
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CTT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

61
Fair
Accrual Quality
87
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
73
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.45
Moderate
DSRI
0.829
GMI
1.103
AQI
0.903
SGI
1.006
DEPI
0.938
SGAI
0.887
TATA
0.033
LVGI
0.994

CTT demonstrates a Beneish M-Score of -2.448, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with a cash conversion score of 0.0, suggesting potential issues with cash flow management.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 60.7 indicates moderate risk, particularly due to a cash conversion score of 0.0, which raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.448 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership, with Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam holding 41.0%, which may provide stability but also indicates potential for influence over corporate governance.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor cash flow closely due to the 0.0 cash conversion score and consider diversifying their holdings to mitigate risks associated with earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.38
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.08
Positive
Composite
78
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+57.5%
Volatility
83.4%
Max Drawdown
-44.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.53P/E
P/B1.05
P/S0.03
ROE23.7%
ROA2.3%
EPS3551.13
BVPS15322.23
Gross Margin6.3%
Net Margin0.7%
D/E9.18
Current Ratio0.98
Rev Growth0.6%
Profit Growth25.3%
EV/EBITDA2.10
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
4.7M
Charter Capital
47.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CTT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam
Inst
41.0%
1.9 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn HIPT
Inst
17.2%
805.902
nguyen-danh-son
Indiv
3.0%
143.100
Công Đoàn Công ty Cổ Phần Chế Tạo Máy Vinacomin
Inst
1.5%
70.466
Mạc Thị Nhung
Indiv
0.6%
28.920
Lê Hồng Quang
Indiv
0.5%
25.500
Bùi Quốc Dũng
Indiv
0.5%
25.225
Phạm Ngọc Huy
Indiv
0.5%
25.115
Phạm Thu Hương
Indiv
0.5%
22.600
Dương Văn Bích
Indiv
0.3%
15.014
Bùi Xuân Hạnh
Indiv
0.3%
14.107
Lê Viết Sự
Indiv
0.3%
12.755
Board & Management
Phạm Thu Hương0.5%
Kế toán trưởng
Bùi Xuân Hạnh0.3%
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Viết Sự0.3%
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quang Huy
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Minh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Chu Thị Việt Trung
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hiền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Tiến Thành
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Văn Tứ
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Mạnh Hùng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Tăng Bá Khang
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Anh Chung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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