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Cyclicals sector

PVS

Cyclicals
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Kỹ thuật Dầu khí Việt Nam
Dầu khí/Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khíCT
42.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
39.219
Current
42.800
Gap
-8.4%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTDầu khíCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Dầu khí" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA478.54B
Fair EV/EBITDA19.7x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
478.54B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
19.7x
-
Net Debt
-10617.72B
=
Equity Value
39.219
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PVS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

89
Good
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
69
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
89

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.36
Moderate
DSRI
0.854
GMI
0.806
AQI
0.906
SGI
1.370
DEPI
1.005
SGAI
0.760
TATA
0.007
LVGI
1.022

PVS exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.3592, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it falls below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the SGI of 1.3696 suggests aggressive growth, which could be a concern in the context of Vietnamese market dynamics.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.3696 indicates aggressive growth that may not be sustainable in the current market environment.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 88.9/100 reflects strong earnings quality, particularly with an eq_receivables score of 100.0/100.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam, holds a significant 51.4% stake, indicating a strong influence over corporate governance and strategic decisions, which may reduce the risk of minority shareholder exploitation.

Recommendation

Monitor the company's growth strategies closely due to the elevated SGI, while leveraging the strong earnings quality metrics to assess future performance. Consider a cautious investment approach until more clarity on growth sustainability is achieved.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.00
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.76
Positive
Composite
69
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+19.8%
Volatility
48.0%
Max Drawdown
-39.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.44P/E
P/B1.51
P/S0.70
ROE12.7%
ROA5.0%
EPS3559.97
BVPS29374.54
Gross Margin5.6%
Net Margin5.6%
D/E1.38
Current Ratio1.65
Rev Growth37.0%
Profit Growth70.2%
EV/EBITDA9.87
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
511.4M
Charter Capital
5114.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Dầu khí
Industry (ICB L3)
Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khí
Sub-industry
Thiết bị và Dịch vụ Dầu khí
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PVS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam
Inst
51.4%
262.8 trieu
VanEck Vietnam ETF
Inst
4.4%
19.9 trieu
CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund
Inst
3.8%
18.0 trieu
Ngân hàng TM TNHH MTV Việt Nam Hiện đại
Inst
3.3%
14.6 trieu
tgit-templeton frontier markets fund
Inst
2.9%
13.1 trieu
Vietnam Investment Property Holdings Limited
Inst
2.4%
11.5 trieu
Ftif - Templeton Frontier Markets Fund
Inst
1.4%
6.3 trieu
Norges Bank
Inst
1.3%
6.2 trieu
amersham industries limited
Inst
0.9%
4.5 trieu
Saigon Investments Limited
Inst
0.9%
4.3 trieu
VOF Investment Limited
Inst
0.8%
3.7 trieu
Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited
Inst
0.8%
3.8 trieu
balestrand limited
Inst
0.7%
3.3 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Tiếp Cận Thị Trường VinaCapital
Inst
0.6%
3.1 trieu
DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company
Inst
0.5%
2.3 trieu
Vietnam Investment Limited
Inst
0.5%
2.1 trieu
Wareham Group Limited
Inst
0.5%
2.3 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Kinh tế hiện đại VinaCapital
Inst
0.3%
1.4 trieu
FTIF Templeton Emerging Markets Smaller Companies Fund
Inst
0.3%
1.3 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đại chúng Việt Nam
Inst
0.3%
1.3 trieu
templeton frontier markets fund
Inst
0.2%
982.750
Curian/Franklin Templeton Frontier Markets Fund
Inst
0.1%
557.700
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Kinh tế hiện đại VinaCapital
Inst
0.1%
531.800
Board & Management
Trần Hồ Bắc
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Mạnh Cường
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thanh Tùng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hữu Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Quốc Hoan
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Cường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Trần Toàn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Hữu Việt Cường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tạ Đức Tiến
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Bảo
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Xuân Ngọc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lưu Đức Hoàng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Tiến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Thu Hà
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Đức Thủy
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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