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Utilities sector

HTC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Hóc Môn
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
44.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
26.646
Current
44.700
Gap
-40.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.26%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.400
Payout ratio66.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.400
Base Growth
2.26%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
26.646
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HTC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

49
Weak
Accrual Quality
87
Cash Conversion
26
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
29
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

0.83
High Risk
DSRI
2.320
GMI
1.515
AQI
1.249
SGI
1.197
DEPI
0.937
SGAI
0.973
TATA
0.337
LVGI
1.089

HTC exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 0.8269, which is well above the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 31.6/100 further highlights concerns regarding the company's financial health and transparency.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 0.8269 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 31.6/100, with an accrual score of only 8.4/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
  • DSRI of 2.3204 indicates potential issues with inventory management, as it is significantly above the benchmark of 1.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables.
  • SGI of 1.1973 suggests that the company is experiencing growth, although it should be monitored closely.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of institutional investors, with the largest holding at 23.9%. This may provide some stability, but the presence of individual shareholders could lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in HTC, particularly focusing on the company's financial reporting practices and management's credibility.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.35
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.33
Positive
Composite
46
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+27.2%
Volatility
86.2%
Max Drawdown
-25.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
20.08P/E
P/B1.97
P/S0.56
ROE9.3%
ROA4.7%
EPS1703.26
BVPS17382.79
Gross Margin13.8%
Net Margin2.8%
D/E1.00
Current Ratio1.58
Rev Growth-1.0%
Profit Growth-8.3%
EV/EBITDA18.48
Div Yield2.6%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
16.5M
Charter Capital
165.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HTC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Bến Thành
Inst
23.9%
3.9 trieu
Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Thiên Hải
Inst
17.0%
2.8 trieu
Lê Văn Mỵ
Indiv
10.2%
1.7 trieu
Công ty Xăng Dầu Khu Vực II
Inst
9.6%
1.6 trieu
Lê Anh Phương
Indiv
2.6%
436.065
Lê Thụy Mỵ Châu
Indiv
1.8%
300.000
nguyen-tien-dung
Indiv
1.6%
260.415
nguyen-bang-tam
Indiv
1.2%
62.500
Phan Bạch Ngọc
Indiv
1.1%
187.500
Lê Phan Trung Hiếu
Indiv
1.1%
180.000
Lê Kim Phượng
Indiv
1.0%
171.150
Nguyễn Ngọc Thảo
Indiv
0.9%
155.355
Tô Văn Liêm
Indiv
0.7%
106.605
Phan Hữu Công
Indiv
0.6%
93.480
Lê Thị Mộng Điệp
Indiv
0.4%
47.940
Kiều Công Tâm
Indiv
0.4%
70.230
Lê Văn Tèo
Indiv
0.2%
37.750
Lê Văn Tiến
Indiv
0.2%
36.330
Nguyễn Ngọc Đào
Indiv
0.2%
31.500
Bùi Quốc Huy
Indiv
0.1%
16.070
Phan Minh Xinh
Indiv
0.1%
6.490
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Hồng
Indiv
0.1%
18.750
Board & Management
Lê Văn Mỵ10.2%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tiến Dũng1.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Ngọc Thảo0.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Tô Văn Liêm0.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Kiều Công Tâm0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Văn Tèo0.2%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Hồng0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Công Tâm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Thị Hồng Phúc
Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán
Nguyễn Trần Trọng Nghĩa
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Hoàng Liêm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Tuyền
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Hương Giang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Tuấn Ngọc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Danh Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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