XDH

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng Dân dụng Hà Nội

Bất động sảnCT

17.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

9.935

Current

17.000

Gap

-41.6%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

64.13%

Kd(1-t)

6.26%

D/(D+E)

35.87%

WACC

10.97%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

23.437

60%DCF Value

933

Blended Intrinsic

9.935

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — XDH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

0.35

High Risk

DSRI

0.257

GMI

1.154

AQI

1.258

SGI

3.669

DEPI

0.000

SGAI

0.370

TATA

0.194

LVGI

0.853

XDH exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of 0.3548, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality metrics further highlight concerning trends, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 0.3548 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 43.7/100, with an alarming eq_cash_conv score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in cash flow management.
SGI of 3.6695 indicates unsustainable growth, which may not be supported by actual revenue generation.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could mitigate some liquidity risks.
The presence of a significant institutional shareholder (43.1%) may provide some level of oversight and governance.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 43.1%, which could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should approach XDH with caution, considering the high risk of earnings manipulation. It is advisable to monitor upcoming financial disclosures closely and assess any changes in management or ownership dynamics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.90

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.37

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+53.2%

Volatility

31.4%

Max Drawdown

-47.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.44P/E

P/B0.82

P/S2.80

ROE5.7%

ROA3.5%

EPS1170.45

BVPS20726.30

Gross Margin30.1%

Net Margin19.4%

D/E0.65

Current Ratio2.05

Rev Growth4.5%

Profit Growth50.5%

EV/EBITDA9.27

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

27.0M

Charter Capital

270.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for XDH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Hạ tầng Đô thị UDIC

Inst

43.1%

11.6 trieu

Phương Kim Thảo

Indiv

14.6%

3.9 trieu

Trần Hồng Tâm

Indiv

12.7%

1.4 trieu

nguyen-thi-hong

Indiv

5.0%

1.4 trieu

Đoàn Trịnh Linh

Indiv

2.6%

710.532

Phương Thị Minh Thu

Indiv

2.0%

540.540

Phương Minh Vũ

Indiv

2.0%

540.540

Phạm Tiến Điệp

Indiv

0.3%

80.293

Trần Quang Khuê

Indiv

0.3%

67.623

nguyen-thi-hai

Indiv

0.1%

39.639

Đinh Công Đức

Indiv

0.1%

17.220

Board & Management

Phương Kim Thảo14.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Hồng Tâm12.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đoàn Trịnh Linh2.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Tiến Điệp0.3%

Giám đốc

Trần Quang Khuê0.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hải0.1%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đinh Công Đức0.1%

Phó Giám đốc

Hà Vân Chi

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Đỗ Tiến Lợi

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Huyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Thị Thanh Thúy

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Nguyễn Đình Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thúy Hạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

ICC79.1%CDG43.1%CH52 links NO123.9%DLD12.7%VTQ5.9%IDJ5.1%SRF5.0%LUT5.0%GMD5.0%HNM5.0%OPC5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026