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Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện - Điện lực 3

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtSản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnHOSECT
40.800
VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+26.7%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
40.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
51.708

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
51%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+1.9percentage points
Utilities12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Utilities peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−17.2+1.9
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.417
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.94%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend4.39%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→5.100
Payout ratio→99.0%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→40.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+26.7%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
51.708
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate4.39%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share5.100dps source: eventspayout ratio: 98.99
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·8389969295107928810583736743·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·0.64211116865759070565733·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·55706465662315000000·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2714281517151112141216910·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·00.010000.080.10.330.050.080.030.4·
Net Inventories
·0.70.80.90.80.810.90.60.80.81.010.7·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.70.80.90.80.810.90.60.80.81.010.7·
Other current assets
·0.20.40.20.20.040000000.020.02·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.020.02·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·44383841404044494852607180·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.20000000·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·38373740393840434750607080·
Tangible fixed assets
·38373739393840434750607080·
Intagible fixed assets
·000.030.070.1000.030.050.08000·
Other non-current assets
·61120.7246120.20.80·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·61120.7246120.10.80·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·127127134133135147136137153136134138123·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·181417171211279126252812·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·181417171211279126252812·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·110113117116122136109128141130109109111·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·110113117116122136109128141130109109111·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·95959595959595959595959595·
Other Reserves
·0011111111111·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0044444444433·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·15181716223692841309911·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·127127134133135147136137153136134138123·
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·95959595959595959595959595·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
36
Weak
Accrual Quality
47
Cash Conversion
49
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
83
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.02 · 93rd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.00
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.760
GMI
0.992
AQI
3.788
SGI
1.124
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
1.221
TATA
0.149
LVGI
1.269

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.7937th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.0%2nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.0233 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.00, indicating the company’s accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has trended toward greater unusualness. Key drivers behind the M-Score are a high DSRI (1.7597) and very elevated AQI (3.7885); however, the Altman Z-Score is 19.31 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, while statutory Vietnamese loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses reported.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score: 0.0233 and Vietnam peer percentile 93rd — the M-Score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation (higher = more aggressive accounting); against Vietnamese peers this company sits in the top 7% for aggressive accounting signals.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change: +3.00 — the score has moved materially year over year (Beneish scores have low serial correlation), so the trajectory is a secondary cue to investigate.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index): 1.7597 — this measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value above 1 suggests receivables rose faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition stretching.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index): 3.7885 — AQI measures the proportion of non-current, intangible and non-operating assets to total assets; a high AQI can indicate increasing capitalization of costs, reclassification to long-term assets, or growth in non-core assets.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index): 1.2213 — SGA rising faster than sales (SGAI >1) suggests operating costs are growing faster than revenue, which can prompt management to reclassify or capitalize expenses.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets): 0.1491 — this measures accruals relative to assets; a positive and sizable TATA indicates earnings contain a material accrual component rather than cash.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index): 1.2693 — leverage increasing relative to prior year (LVGI>1) shows balance-sheet funding pressure which can influence accounting choices.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score: 19.31 (safe zone) — measures distance to bankruptcy; a high Z-Score indicates low short-term insolvency risk.
  • Piotroski F-Score: 6/9 — a neutral-to-healthy operating and balance-sheet fundamentals score (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle: 0.0% of total assets (2nd percentile) — the company reports effectively no prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable or other long-term receivables outside the trade cycle, reducing one common route for off-cycle receivables.
  • No accumulated losses and 0 years of net loss through FY2025 — retained earnings are positive and the parent reported profit in FY2025, meeting the statutory indicators that would trigger potential exchange action.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công Ty Điện Lực Miền Trung holds 30.4% (institutional, likely strategic/state-related), with the next largest individuals at 2.1% and below; this indicates a dominant controlling shareholder. Director-deal registrations show 5 sale registrations totaling 161,500 shares (net registered volume -1.70% of shares outstanding) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions, not executed trades, and can repeat if a holder registers multiple times.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables (note/schedule for receivables) with revenue growth to validate the DSRI (1.7597) calculation.
  • Inspect the fixed/intangible/other non-current asset schedules to reconcile the high AQI (3.7885) and identify what asset classes increased (capitalised costs, reclassifications, acquisitions).
  • Reconcile cash flow from operations to reported net profit across the last three years to confirm the 3-year cash conversion ratio (0.79) and the components of the TATA (0.1491).
  • Review related-party disclosures and the notes on prepayments, loans to/from related parties and other receivables to corroborate the 0.0% figure for receivables outside the trade cycle and to check for off-cycle arrangements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
19.31
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−1.75
Negative
Composite
79
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.60×Turnover0.81×Leverage1.16=ROE44.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
−11.7%
Volatility
12.8%
Max Drawdown
−14.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.84P/E
P/B
3.50
P/S
3.74
ROE
43.9%
ROA
38.5%
EPS
5.152
BVPS
11.549
Gross Margin
65.6%
Net Margin
47.7%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
4.75
Rev Growth
+12.4%
Profit Growth
+11.1%
EV/EBITDA
5.39
Div Yield
12.6%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
9.5M
Charter Capital
95.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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