DRL
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện - Điện lực 3
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 40.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 51.708
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Utilities peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.7937th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%2nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.0233 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.00, indicating the company’s accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has trended toward greater unusualness. Key drivers behind the M-Score are a high DSRI (1.7597) and very elevated AQI (3.7885); however, the Altman Z-Score is 19.31 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, while statutory Vietnamese loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses reported.
- Beneish M-Score: 0.0233 and Vietnam peer percentile 93rd — the M-Score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation (higher = more aggressive accounting); against Vietnamese peers this company sits in the top 7% for aggressive accounting signals.
- Year-over-year M-Score change: +3.00 — the score has moved materially year over year (Beneish scores have low serial correlation), so the trajectory is a secondary cue to investigate.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index): 1.7597 — this measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value above 1 suggests receivables rose faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition stretching.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index): 3.7885 — AQI measures the proportion of non-current, intangible and non-operating assets to total assets; a high AQI can indicate increasing capitalization of costs, reclassification to long-term assets, or growth in non-core assets.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index): 1.2213 — SGA rising faster than sales (SGAI >1) suggests operating costs are growing faster than revenue, which can prompt management to reclassify or capitalize expenses.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets): 0.1491 — this measures accruals relative to assets; a positive and sizable TATA indicates earnings contain a material accrual component rather than cash.
- LVGI (Leverage Index): 1.2693 — leverage increasing relative to prior year (LVGI>1) shows balance-sheet funding pressure which can influence accounting choices.
- Altman Z-Score: 19.31 (safe zone) — measures distance to bankruptcy; a high Z-Score indicates low short-term insolvency risk.
- Piotroski F-Score: 6/9 — a neutral-to-healthy operating and balance-sheet fundamentals score (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle: 0.0% of total assets (2nd percentile) — the company reports effectively no prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable or other long-term receivables outside the trade cycle, reducing one common route for off-cycle receivables.
- No accumulated losses and 0 years of net loss through FY2025 — retained earnings are positive and the parent reported profit in FY2025, meeting the statutory indicators that would trigger potential exchange action.
Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công Ty Điện Lực Miền Trung holds 30.4% (institutional, likely strategic/state-related), with the next largest individuals at 2.1% and below; this indicates a dominant controlling shareholder. Director-deal registrations show 5 sale registrations totaling 161,500 shares (net registered volume -1.70% of shares outstanding) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions, not executed trades, and can repeat if a holder registers multiple times.
- Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables (note/schedule for receivables) with revenue growth to validate the DSRI (1.7597) calculation.
- Inspect the fixed/intangible/other non-current asset schedules to reconcile the high AQI (3.7885) and identify what asset classes increased (capitalised costs, reclassifications, acquisitions).
- Reconcile cash flow from operations to reported net profit across the last three years to confirm the 3-year cash conversion ratio (0.79) and the components of the TATA (0.1491).
- Review related-party disclosures and the notes on prepayments, loans to/from related parties and other receivables to corroborate the 0.0% figure for receivables outside the trade cycle and to check for off-cycle arrangements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.50
- P/S
- 3.74
- ROE
- 43.9%
- ROA
- 38.5%
- EPS
- 5.152
- BVPS
- 11.549
- Gross Margin
- 65.6%
- Net Margin
- 47.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 4.75
- Rev Growth
- +12.4%
- Profit Growth
- +11.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.39
- Div Yield
- 12.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.5M
- Charter Capital
- 95.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Company Type
- CT