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Utilities sector

GHC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Gia Lai
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
27.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
42.028
Current
27.800
Gap
+51.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend5.02%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.000
Payout ratio56.5%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.000
Base Growth
5.02%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
42.028
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GHC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

69
Fair
Accrual Quality
96
Cash Conversion
89
Receivables
88
Margin Stability
72
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49
Moderate
DSRI
0.815
GMI
1.044
AQI
1.230
SGI
1.054
DEPI
0.941
SGAI
0.999
TATA
-0.011
LVGI
0.847

GHC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4923, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal some concerns, particularly with a revenue quality score of 0.0/100, which suggests potential issues in revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates significant concerns regarding revenue recognition practices.
  • High institutional ownership at 62.5% may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced shareholder influence.
Positive Signals
  • Strong earnings quality score of 69.1/100, particularly in accruals (95.8/100) and cash conversion (89.3/100), indicating robust operational performance.
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.4923 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investors.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by institutional investors (62.5%) may pose risks related to governance and decision-making, potentially sidelining minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices due to the concerning revenue quality score while considering the overall strong earnings quality metrics as a positive indicator for operational performance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.14
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.39
Negative
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-3.1%
Volatility
13.9%
Max Drawdown
-16.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.04P/E
P/B1.24
P/S4.07
ROE15.9%
ROA11.3%
EPS3544.02
BVPS23033.96
Gross Margin56.9%
Net Margin50.6%
D/E0.35
Current Ratio3.12
Rev Growth5.4%
Profit Growth-6.9%
EV/EBITDA6.73
Div Yield7.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
47.7M
Charter Capital
476.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GHC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Điện Gia Lai
Inst
62.5%
29.8 trieu
Tổng Công Ty Điện Lực Miền Trung
Inst
2.8%
1.4 trieu
Nguyễn Thái Hà
Indiv
1.1%
350.000
Lê Thanh Vinh
Indiv
0.5%
150.000
Hà Quốc Kiệt
Indiv
0.3%
107.500
Trần Đình Lợi
Indiv
0.3%
51.500
Tân Xuân Hiến
Indiv
0.2%
50.000
Đinh Châu Hiếu Thiện
Indiv
0.2%
43.600
Trần Minh Đức
Indiv
0.2%
41.600
Ngô Trường Thạnh
Indiv
0.1%
53.400
Phan Thanh Lạc
Indiv
0.1%
20.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thái Hà1.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Trường Thạnh0.1%
Giám đốc
Mai Văn Nhớ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Châu Tiểu Phụng
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tiến Bằng
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Thành Tuấn Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Hoàng Vinh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Điều
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Mai Văn Định
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Kiều Vân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Xuân Bỉnh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Thu Hồng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hàn Phi Hải
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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