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Utilities sector

CHP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Miền Trung
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
28.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
High
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
33.686
Current
28.200
Gap
+19.5%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.38%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.700
Payout ratio69.5%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.700
Base Growth
3.38%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
33.686
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CHP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

67
Fair
Accrual Quality
65
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
68
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.01
Low Risk
DSRI
0.765
GMI
0.921
AQI
0.688
SGI
1.227
DEPI
0.905
SGAI
1.035
TATA
-0.088
LVGI
0.740

The Beneish M-Score of -3.0062 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is significantly below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 66.6 suggests some concerns, particularly with revenue recognition, which scored 0.0/100.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 0.0/100 for revenue indicates potential issues with revenue recognition practices.
  • SGI of 1.2268 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by cash flows.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.0062 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 suggests strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among institutional investors, which may reduce the risk of management malfeasance but could also lead to a lack of shareholder diversity and influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of the aggressive growth indicated by the SGI. A thorough review of cash flow statements is recommended to ensure sustainability.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
6.80
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.79
Negative
Composite
52
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-8.3%
Volatility
14.9%
Max Drawdown
-16.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.70P/E
P/B2.11
P/S4.45
ROE22.4%
ROA17.3%
EPS2907.08
BVPS13371.69
Gross Margin56.2%
Net Margin45.9%
D/E0.24
Current Ratio3.28
Rev Growth22.7%
Profit Growth46.1%
EV/EBITDA6.22
Div Yield3.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
157.7M
Charter Capital
1576.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CHP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree
Inst
24.3%
38.2 trieu
Tổng Công ty Điện Lực Miền Nam
Inst
23.0%
36.2 trieu
Tổng Công Ty Điện Lực Miền Trung
Inst
23.0%
36.2 trieu
Công ty Tài chính Tổng hợp Cổ phần Điện Lực
Inst
4.8%
6.0 trieu
Phạm Ngọc Lệ
Indiv
0.8%
1.1 trieu
Hồ Quốc Việt
Indiv
0.1%
200.700
Đặng Thị Cúc
Indiv
0.1%
140.794
Board & Management
Hồ Quốc Việt0.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hữu Phương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Hữu Tâm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Trương Công Giới
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Mai
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Quý Anh Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Quang Việt
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Danh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đức An
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hồ Hoàn Kiếm
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Viết Pa Sa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Viết Thiên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Trương Tiến Đạt
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Quyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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