DXP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Đoạn Xá

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

13.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.850

Current

13.400

Gap

-48.9%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

85.33%

Kd(1-t)

6.41%

D/(D+E)

14.67%

WACC

11.35%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.56%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

-203

50%DCF Value

6.850

Blended Intrinsic

6.850

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DXP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.66

Low Risk

DSRI

0.616

GMI

0.472

AQI

0.678

SGI

1.030

DEPI

5.591

SGAI

2.183

TATA

-0.057

LVGI

2.546

DXP exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly in earnings quality and potential manipulation indicators. While the Beneish M-Score of -3.6628 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, the earnings quality score of 57.5 indicates significant weaknesses in revenue recognition and receivables management.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 57.5/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition, particularly with an eq_revenue score of 0.0/100.
High DEPI of 5.5907 suggests aggressive depreciation policies that may inflate earnings in the short term.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion with an eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash flow management.
Low DSRI of 0.6157 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top three individual shareholders holding a combined 43.1%. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor DXP's earnings quality metrics and consider a deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions. Engaging with management for clarity on financial practices could provide additional insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.00

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.11

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.2%

Volatility

35.6%

Max Drawdown

-32.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.12P/E

P/B0.76

P/S1.03

ROE13.1%

ROA9.4%

EPS1976.28

BVPS15819.66

Gross Margin25.4%

Net Margin16.9%

D/E0.58

Current Ratio3.51

Rev Growth3.0%

Profit Growth120.1%

EV/EBITDA7.73

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

59.9M

Charter Capital

599.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DXP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Hoàng Văn Quang

Indiv

24.1%

1.9 trieu

Bùi Tuấn Minh

Indiv

9.8%

5.9 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Thức

Indiv

9.2%

5.5 trieu

Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity

Inst

5.0%

1.3 trieu

afc vietnam fund

Inst

5.0%

1.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản Lý Quỹ Sài Gòn

Inst

3.2%

248.600

Lionglobal Vietnam Fund

Inst

3.1%

246.000

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

2.9%

764.535

Vũ Cảnh Toàn

Indiv

2.8%

715.440

Công ty Cổ Phần Thương Mại Và Xuất Nhập Khẩu Vật Tư Giao Thông

Inst

1.9%

1.1 trieu

asiavantage global limited

Inst

1.3%

100.000

Đinh Thị Thu Trang

Indiv

0.7%

207.160

Trần Thị Hằng

Indiv

0.4%

217.404

Mai Thị Yên Thế

Indiv

0.3%

78.840

Đào Văn Then

Indiv

0.2%

16.510

Bùi Hữu Đạt

Indiv

0.2%

13.620

Bùi Thị Bích Liên

Indiv

0.2%

12.000

Hoàng Văn Chung

Indiv

0.1%

11.250

Nguyễn Văn Phú

Indiv

0.1%

9.000

Board & Management

Hoàng Văn Quang13.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đinh Thị Thu Trang0.7%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Hằng0.4%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Mai Thị Yên Thế0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Trần Việt Hùng

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Ngọc Đào

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Mạnh Hoàn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đăng Đạt

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hoa

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VCK39.9%SGN25.0%DCS2 links GAS24.1%WCS23.6%KHX23.3%DNM22.7%DAD18.9%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%

Computed 12/04/2026