TIP

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu công nghiệp Tín Nghĩa

Bất động sảnCT

19.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

28.596

Current

19.000

Gap

+50.5%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

88.04%

Kd(1-t)

6.52%

D/(D+E)

11.96%

WACC

12.75%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

35.867

60%DCF Value

23.749

Blended Intrinsic

28.596

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TIP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.41

Moderate

DSRI

1.041

GMI

0.893

AQI

0.287

SGI

0.883

DEPI

0.920

SGAI

0.785

TATA

0.082

LVGI

0.789

The Beneish M-Score of -2.4089 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 39.0/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue quality metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 39.0/100 indicates significant issues, particularly with cash conversion at 14.8/100, suggesting potential liquidity problems.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about the reliability of revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.4089 suggests a lower risk of earnings manipulation compared to the threshold of -1.78.
Strong institutional ownership with Công ty Cổ phần Tổng Công ty Tín Nghĩa holding 56.7% may provide stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by a single institution (Công ty Cổ phần Tổng Công ty Tín Nghĩa at 56.7%) could lead to governance risks, particularly if decisions favor the major shareholder over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices, and consider engaging with management for clarity on earnings quality. Diversifying holdings may mitigate risks associated with concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.49

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.36

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-3.0%

Volatility

21.2%

Max Drawdown

-27.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.72P/E

P/B0.66

P/S8.33

ROE11.9%

ROA10.1%

EPS3322.18

BVPS28693.42

Gross Margin65.2%

Net Margin145.7%

D/E0.13

Current Ratio20.79

Rev Growth-11.7%

Profit Growth18.3%

EV/EBITDA0.61

Div Yield7.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

65.0M

Charter Capital

650.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TIP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tổng Công ty Tín Nghĩa

Inst

56.7%

36.9 trieu

america limited liability company

Inst

15.3%

9.9 trieu

Vietnam Investment Limited

Inst

4.6%

1.2 trieu

Quách Trần Ánh Nguyên

Indiv

1.8%

473.685

Công ty Cổ phần Thương Mại Thành Thành Công

Inst

1.2%

2.5 trieu

nguyen-khanh-linh

Indiv

0.8%

526.985

VOF Investment Limited

Inst

0.6%

166.140

Cao Ngọc Đức

Indiv

0.3%

75.000

Vietnam Ventures Limited

Inst

0.3%

64.300

Nguyễn Hiếu Lộc

Indiv

0.1%

73.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Hiếu Lộc0.1%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Ly

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Quốc Hùng

Phó Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Đỗ Hoài Thu

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Quốc Nam

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Hoài Nam

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thị Thanh Hà

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Thu Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Dương Thị Minh Hồng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Hữu Tịnh

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Ngọc Giàu

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Lan Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

BAX2 links NTW56.7%DNT56.7%SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%MTH15.3%ILB15.3%NCT15.3%PPS15.3%

Computed 12/04/2026