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Utilities sector

GAS

Utilities
Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam - Công ty Cổ phần
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
82.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
71.299
Current
82.100
Gap
-13.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.36%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS3.600
Payout ratio75.9%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
3.600
Base Growth
3.36%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
71.299
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GAS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

65
Fair
Accrual Quality
92
Cash Conversion
96
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
39
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.06
Moderate
DSRI
0.997
GMI
1.360
AQI
1.065
SGI
1.305
DEPI
0.847
SGAI
0.521
TATA
-0.019
LVGI
1.117

The Beneish M-Score of -2.0583 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high GMI of 1.3599 and low earnings quality score of 65.4/100, particularly the poor revenue quality score of 0.0/100, raise concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags
  • GMI of 1.3599 suggests increasing gross margin pressures, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition.
  • Earnings quality score of 65.4/100, particularly a revenue quality score of 0.0/100, indicates significant concerns regarding the reliability of reported revenues.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.9969 indicates that the company is managing its inventory efficiently relative to sales, which is a positive sign.
  • High eq_accrual score of 92.3/100 suggests that the company's earnings are primarily driven by actual cash flows rather than accounting adjustments.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming ownership by Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam at 95.8% presents a risk of lack of minority shareholder influence and potential governance issues.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of high ownership concentration on governance. A cautious approach is advised until clearer signals of earnings sustainability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.82
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.31
Excellent
Composite
65
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+56.4%
Volatility
47.8%
Max Drawdown
-26.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
21.48P/E
P/B3.70
P/S1.81
ROE18.0%
ROA13.0%
EPS4730.45
BVPS27474.66
Gross Margin12.5%
Net Margin8.4%
D/E0.38
Current Ratio3.40
Rev Growth30.5%
Profit Growth9.8%
EV/EBITDA15.06
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
2412.9M
Charter Capital
24129.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GAS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam
Inst
95.8%
2.3 ty
Board & Management
Phan Quốc Nghĩa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Hồng Lĩnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hoàng Văn Quang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Thị Thanh Ngọc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Hoàng Anh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Văn Phong
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thanh Bình
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Đông Nguyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Triệu Quốc Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Kim Yến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Công Minh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Công Luận
Kế toán trưởng
Huỳnh Quang Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Sinh Khang
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Hồng Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Nghị
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Mạnh Sơn
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Đăng Nam
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
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