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Technology sector

ELC

Technology
Công ty Cổ phần Công nghệ - Viễn thông ELCOM
Công nghệ Thông tin/Thiết bị và Phần cứngCT
18.350
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
12.014
Current
18.350
Gap
-34.5%
ModelDCF PE BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTCông nghệ Thông tinTechnology
Classified as technology because ICB sector "Công nghệ Thông tin" maps to the technology group
ModelDCF + P/E Blend
Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF uses the slowest growth decay (0.05) recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
62.75%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.87%
x
D/(D+E)
37.25%
=
WACC
11.09%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.00%
Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Max fair P/E10x
4
Valuation
60%DCF Value
12.298
40%P/E Value
11.589
Blended Intrinsic
12.014
Value Decomposition
46%
54%
Explicit period (46%)Terminal value (54%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ELC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

40
Weak
Accrual Quality
40
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
64
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.71
High Risk
DSRI
0.793
GMI
1.714
AQI
0.779
SGI
1.897
DEPI
0.840
SGAI
0.508
TATA
0.174
LVGI
1.021

ELC exhibits several concerning indicators of earnings manipulation, particularly highlighted by a Beneish M-Score of -0.7101, which is below the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 39.6 suggests significant issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition, raising red flags for potential financial misrepresentation.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.7101 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 39.6/100, particularly low cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
  • SGI of 1.8968 indicates aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable or accurately reported.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.7932 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign.
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, suggesting effective credit control.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration among individual shareholders, with the top three individuals holding a combined 18.9%. This could lead to potential governance issues and conflicts of interest, especially in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on ELC, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices. Consider monitoring for any changes in management or ownership that may impact governance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.14
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.43
Negative
Composite
37
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+8.6%
Volatility
30.5%
Max Drawdown
-33.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
19.85P/E
P/B1.87
P/S1.67
ROE10.6%
ROA5.7%
EPS1158.85
BVPS12273.28
Gross Margin17.8%
Net Margin8.4%
D/E0.61
Current Ratio2.45
Rev Growth89.7%
Profit Growth33.7%
EV/EBITDA16.37
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
110.1M
Charter Capital
1100.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Công nghệ Thông tin
Industry (ICB L3)
Thiết bị và Phần cứng
Sub-industry
Thiết bị viễn thông
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ELC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Phan Chiến Thắng
Indiv
8.4%
9.2 trieu
Trần Hùng Giang
Indiv
5.3%
5.8 trieu
Nguyễn Mạnh Hải
Indiv
5.2%
5.7 trieu
Vietnam Equity Holding
Inst
5.0%
2.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI
Inst
5.0%
2.5 trieu
Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity
Inst
4.9%
2.5 trieu
PYN Elite Fund
Inst
4.9%
2.5 trieu
Ngô Ngọc Hà
Indiv
4.5%
4.9 trieu
Quỹ tầm nhìn SSI
Inst
4.4%
1.8 trieu
Lê Thị Vinh
Indiv
3.5%
3.9 trieu
Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Dt&t
Inst
3.4%
3.8 trieu
DSCAP-SSIAM Vietnam Growth Investment Fund LLC
Inst
1.9%
780.000
nguyen-thanh-son
Indiv
1.8%
715.811
Công ty TNHH Quản lý quỹ SSI
Inst
1.4%
694.488
Phạm Minh Thắng
Indiv
1.3%
1.3 trieu
nguyen-thi-mai-phuong
Indiv
1.3%
1.4 trieu
nguyen-thi-le-thuy
Indiv
1.2%
1.3 trieu
Nguyễn Đức Thiện
Indiv
1.0%
1.1 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thủy
Indiv
0.7%
773.467
Nguyễn Hoàng Minh
Indiv
0.4%
194.973
Võ Quang Hùng
Indiv
0.4%
146.250
Nguyễn Thị Minh Hạnh
Indiv
0.3%
356.235
Nguyễn Thị Hà
Indiv
0.1%
84.040
Nguyễn Thị Kim Oanh
Indiv
0.1%
53.269
Board & Management
Phan Chiến Thắng8.4%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Hùng Giang5.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Mạnh Hải5.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Ngọc Hà4.5%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Minh Thắng1.3%
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đức Thiện1.0%
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thủy0.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Ngân Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Kiều Anh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thị Thanh Minh
Kế toán trưởng
Hoàng Thị Phương Thúy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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