TSJ
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TSJ
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The Beneish M-Score of -2.126 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 51.1 suggests moderate concerns, particularly with cash conversion and revenue recognition.
- Earnings Quality Score of 51.1 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, especially with a cash conversion score of only 9.1.
- SGA (Sales, General and Administrative expenses) Index of 1.0253 suggests that expenses are growing faster than sales, which could indicate inefficiencies.
- The DSRI of 1.0503 is close to 1, indicating that inventory levels are in line with sales, which is a positive sign.
- Receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, suggesting effective collection practices.
The top shareholders are predominantly institutional, with Tổng Công ty Du Lịch Hà Nội holding 45.2%, which may provide stability. However, the concentration of ownership could lead to governance risks if interests diverge.
Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and management's approach to revenue recognition. Consider a cautious investment stance until further clarity on operational efficiency is provided.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
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