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Cyclicals sector

FSO

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ khí đóng tàu thủy sản Việt Nam
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
5.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.802
Current
5.700
Gap
-33.3%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA556.45M
Fair EV/EBITDA37.8x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
556.45M
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
37.8x
-
Net Debt
-355.17M
=
Equity Value
3.802
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — FSO

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

49
Weak
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
58
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
25

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

6.53
High Risk
DSRI
1.606
GMI
0.356
AQI
24.522
SGI
0.428
DEPI
0.175
SGAI
1.838
TATA
0.006
LVGI
0.981

FSO exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 6.5272, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality metrics reveal substantial weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and receivables management.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 6.5272 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 49.1/100, with eq_receivables and eq_margin both at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in revenue recognition and cash conversion.
Positive Signals
  • High accrual quality score of 97.5/100 indicates that reported earnings are largely based on actual cash flows.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam holding 62.4%, which may lead to governance risks and reduced accountability to minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in FSO, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the implications of concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
12.33
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.52
Negative
Composite
25
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-32.7%
Volatility
135.7%
Max Drawdown
-52.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
28.93P/E
P/B0.67
P/S5.98
ROE2.4%
ROA2.3%
EPS231.57
BVPS9961.11
Gross Margin78.5%
Net Margin20.7%
D/E0.03
Current Ratio33.53
Rev Growth-57.2%
Profit Growth256.8%
EV/EBITDA67.09
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.6M
Charter Capital
56.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Xe tải & Đóng tàu
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for FSO — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam
Inst
62.4%
3.5 trieu
Lương Thị Thanh Nhã
Indiv
3.6%
203.129
Nguyễn Đức Lâm
Indiv
2.9%
165.000
Đặng Quang Hoàn
Indiv
1.7%
97.602
Phạm Văn Duẩn
Indiv
1.1%
59.685
Trần Công Toại
Indiv
0.7%
39.500
Lương Thế Long
Indiv
0.6%
36.000
Vũ Văn Khuyến
Indiv
0.4%
25.500
Phạm Thanh Yến
Indiv
0.4%
24.894
Vũ Hồng Trường
Indiv
0.4%
19.900
Board & Management
Nguyễn Đức Lâm2.9%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Quang Hoàn1.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Công Toại0.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lương Thế Long0.6%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Văn Khuyến0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Thanh Yến0.4%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Vĩnh Hòa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Hữu Hoàng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Thị Thu Hà
Kế toán trưởng
PHẠM QUỐC ANH
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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