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Consumer sector

SPV

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy Đặc Sản
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
29.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
22.811
Current
29.900
Gap
-23.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
46.39%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.33%
x
D/(D+E)
53.61%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend7.62%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF17.51B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
17.51B
Growth Rate
7.62%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
22.811
Value Decomposition
42%
58%
Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SPV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

69
Fair
Accrual Quality
84
Cash Conversion
43
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
66
Revenue Quality
48

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.56
Elevated
DSRI
1.544
GMI
1.015
AQI
0.885
SGI
1.225
DEPI
1.455
SGAI
0.920
TATA
0.040
LVGI
0.967

SPV shows a Beneish M-Score of -1.5555, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion and revenue quality, which may raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality cash conversion score at 43.2/100 suggests potential issues with cash flow generation relative to reported earnings.
  • SGI at 1.2247 indicates aggressive growth, which could lead to unsustainable revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.5555 is above the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • Receivables quality score at 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly institutional, with the largest holding at 22.7%. This concentrated ownership may lead to governance risks, especially if decisions favor short-term gains over long-term stability.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices, particularly given the aggressive growth indicators. Consider a cautious approach to investment until there are improvements in earnings quality and cash conversion.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.04
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.24
Positive
Composite
65
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+58.6%
Volatility
157.3%
Max Drawdown
-40.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.23P/E
P/B1.55
P/S0.47
ROE20.0%
ROA9.1%
EPS3581.62
BVPS19318.95
Gross Margin20.8%
Net Margin5.6%
D/E1.16
Current Ratio1.25
Rev Growth22.0%
Profit Growth81.4%
EV/EBITDA7.25
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.8M
Charter Capital
108.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SPV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Transimex
Inst
22.7%
2.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vi Na
Inst
22.1%
2.4 trieu
Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam
Inst
18.0%
1.9 trieu
Cao Thanh Định
Indiv
10.4%
1.1 trieu
Công Ty CP Dịch Vụ Văn Hóa Việt
Inst
9.0%
973.621
Bùi Tuấn Ngọc
Indiv
2.6%
278.890
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư New Asia
Inst
0.6%
60.610
Trương Minh Thông
Indiv
0.1%
14.050
Board & Management
Huỳnh An Trung0.3%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Minh Thông0.1%
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Thị Thúy Hằng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Phước Thái
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Hồng Gấm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Sung
Giám đốc Chi nhánh
Diệp Nam Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Tranh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thành Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Văn Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Minh Thi
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Xuân Quang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Kim Hậu
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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