SPD

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Thủy sản Miền Trung

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

8.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

22.322

Current

8.500

Gap

+162.6%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

32.18%

Kd(1-t)

6.65%

D/(D+E)

67.82%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.59%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→27.03B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

27.03B

Growth Rate

2.59%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

22.322

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SPD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-3.21

Low Risk

DSRI

1.042

GMI

1.047

AQI

0.520

SGI

0.990

DEPI

1.108

SGAI

1.155

TATA

-0.114

LVGI

1.150

The Beneish M-Score of -3.2141 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 49.6/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 49.6/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, especially with cash conversion at only 40.0/100.
SGAI of 1.1554 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into proportional revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.2141 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, indicating some level of financial integrity.
Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which can enhance cash flow stability.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 36.4%. This concentration can lead to governance risks, as minority shareholders may have limited influence over corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor cash flow metrics closely and assess the sustainability of revenue growth. Consider a cautious approach to investment until further clarity on earnings quality and operational efficiency is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.71

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.82

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-30.4%

Volatility

13.0%

Max Drawdown

-47.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

13.59P/E

P/B0.73

P/S0.12

ROE5.5%

ROA1.9%

EPS625.38

BVPS11640.85

Gross Margin8.8%

Net Margin0.9%

D/E1.73

Current Ratio1.25

Rev Growth13.8%

Profit Growth-10.1%

EV/EBITDA10.91

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

12.0M

Charter Capital

120.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SPD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam

Inst

36.4%

4.4 trieu

Đỗ Văn Sinh

Indiv

17.9%

2.1 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Giang

Indiv

16.8%

2.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Thủy Sản Việt Nguyên

Inst

14.0%

1.7 trieu

Tô Thanh Sơn

Indiv

5.0%

600.000

Phạm Đình Giá

Indiv

2.6%

321.700

Công ty TNHH Tân Vinh Thái

Inst

2.1%

207.445

Trần Tấn Tâm

Indiv

1.2%

116.497

Công ty TNHH TMDV Hợp Tiến

Inst

0.8%

80.000

Lê Hồng Sơn

Indiv

0.8%

76.476

nguyen-dinh-tri

Indiv

0.4%

39.500

nguyen-duy-dung

Indiv

0.4%

35.546

Nguyễn Minh Chánh

Indiv

0.2%

22.000

Huỳnh Huy Hòa

Indiv

0.1%

15.000

Board & Management

Đỗ Văn Sinh17.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Minh Khuê

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Hữu Hoàng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Phước Thái

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Như Thiên Mỵ

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lê Thanh Phương

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Vĩnh Hòa

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Mạnh Hữu

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

FSO62.4%SPH59.3%SNC50.8%SCO46.4%CAN36.4%SPV36.4%SRF36.4%SJ136.4%SHB17.9%GMC16.8%TNA16.8%HBH16.8%

Computed 12/04/2026